000 AGXX40 KNHC 190508 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 108 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A surface is analyzed at 28N91W with a ridge extending se to the Fl Straits. A fairly dry cold front will pass e across the ne gulf waters this morning accompanied only a moderate w-nw-n wind shift. Moderate to locally fresh n flow is forecast to the e of 87W this afternoon, with these winds clocking to the ne tonight, then diminishing to a moderate breeze from the n on Mon with all winds less than 20 kt on Mon night. The surface high will shift back e along 28N to near 28N86W on Mon night, with the ridge axis orientated sw to 22N98W. The high should then meander over the ne waters through Wed night then shift n of the area on Thu. A thermal trough will develop late each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula, and shift w across the waters s of 22N between 90W and 93W during the overnight hours, and gradually lose identity along about 94W late each morning. Expect a ne-e- se 20-25 kt wind shift along the trough with seas building to 7 ft tonight and again on Mon night. Strong n winds are expected only briefly on Tue night, but a strong event is forecast again on Wed and Thu nights. Otherwise, moderate anticyclonic flow forecast across the gulf through Mon evening, with fresh se return flow developing across the nw waters on Tue night with these fresh winds spreading e across the entire sw gulf waters by late Wed night and continuing through Thu with strong e winds possible across the Fl Straits on thu night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A stationary front analyzed from eastern cuba to eastern Honduras will gradually dissipate through Mon night, while accompanied by scattered showers. Fresh to locally strong ne flow, and seas to 7 ft, are forecast to the w of this decaying front through Mon night, except for strong ne pulses expected in the Windward passage through Tue evening. Moderate ne flow forecast elsewhere across the nw Caribbean on Tue and Tue night. The gradient is forecast to tighten again on Wed and Thu with fresh to locally strong ne flow over the nw Caribbean. Strong to near gale force trades forecast within 150 nm of the nw coast of Colombia at sunrise this morning then quickly diminishing throughout the day as the pressure gradient relaxes. Strong ne winds forecast only within about 60 nm of the Colombian coast tonight and on Mon night, and only fresh nocturnal winds expected on Tue night. Model guidance is hinting at strong winds again on Wed and Thu nights. Moderate to fresh trades expected across the tropical waters e of the Leewards today, then the low level flow will clock to the e to se tonight and Mon. The resultant combined seas of 6 to 8 ft will subside to 4 to 7 ft on Mon. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A frontal trough from 28N55W to e Cuba will drift nw today. A cold front from 31N75W to ne Fl is accompanied by a strong sw-w- nw wind shift, and 8-11 ft seas, all to the n of 28N within 240 nm e and 300 nm w of the front. This cold front will merge with the remnants of the frontal trough along a position roughly from Bermuda to nw Cuba early Mon and from 29N55W to the windward passage early Tue, then weaken to a frontal trough from 26N55W to the Windward Passage early Wed, with the remnants drifting w on Wed and Thu. The northerly post-frontal flow will reach gale force n of 31N, but max at 30 kt from 30N to 31N. Expect seas of 8 ft or greater to dip as far s as 24N across the waters e of the Bahamas in the wake of the cold front on Mon night, then subside from the n beginning on Tue. A drier cold front will move off the Fl coast late Tue night, and reach from Bermuda to central Florida on wed night then lose identity along 24n on Thu as strong to near gale force ne winds develop across the entire area. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.