000 AGXX40 KNHC 181721 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A ridge extends west across the northern gulf from a surface high over northern Florida. The high will shift westward tonight as a weak cold front moves southward across the eastern gulf through Monday. High pressure will prevail over the northern Gulf through Wed. A thermal trough will develop late each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula, shift west overnight, and gradually dissipate along 94W by late morning. Expect winds in excess of 25 kt and seas building to 7 ft. Moderate anticyclonic flow will continue across the remainder of the basin through Tue evening, with fresh se return flow developing in the NW Gulf Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A stationary front extending from the Windward Channel to NE Honduras will gradually dissipate by tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds and scattered showers will persist near the decaying front this afternoon. Strong trades near the NW coast of Colombia will diminish overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes, becoming a fresh nocturnal breeze Monday through Wednesday. Moderate trades are expected elsewhere through Tuesday. Large NE swell with seas to 9-10 ft seas, will subside to less than 8 ft by Sun evening. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A stationary front extends from 23N65W to the Windward Channel. Strong NE winds continue in the southern Bahamas south of 23N within 240 nm west of the front. The front will weaken during the next 24 hours, becoming a frontal trough from 28N56W to 27N67W on Sunday. A cold front will push off the SE coast of the U.S. early Sunday and extend from 31N62W to 21N72W Monday. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front over northern waters primarily north of 28N through Monday. Seas associated with the front will build to 13-14 ft north of 30N early Monday. A high pressure ridge will build eastward along 27N Tuesday through Wednesday. Another cold front will move off Georgia Tuesday night, and reach from Bermuda to central Florida by Wednesday night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.