000 AGXX40 KNHC 161845 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 245 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure across the area continues to support fresh northerly winds over the eastern Gulf, fresh to strong northeast winds over the south central Gulf, partially associated with a thermal trough that moved off the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, and moderate winds elsewhere. The high will shift to the northeast waters by Friday night. This pattern will support light winds over the north central and northeast Gulf with fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds over the extreme southeast and south central Gulf, and moderate winds elsewhere. The high will then be forced westward to the northwest portion on Saturday and weaken slightly in response to a weak cold front that expected to move across the southeastern U.S. and clip the northeast portion of the gulf. This will allow for winds to decrease slightly over the southern Gulf Sunday through Tuesday, except at night when the thermal trough moves off the Yucatan and pulses winds to fresh to strong. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A stationary front that extends from the eastern tip of Cuba to the Nicaragua/Honduras coast will meander southward the next day or two. The front will then weaken and dissipate by early on Saturday. High pressure to the north will support strong northeast winds behind the front during this time period with seas to 8 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected within about 100 nm of either side of this front. Strong winds along the coast of Colombia will pulse to near gale tonight due to local influences. As strong high pressure north of the basin slides eastward to near 31N74W trades over the the far southern portion of the central and southwest Caribbean will increase, with winds likely to reach minimal gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, and to near gale force on Saturday night. Meanwhile, generally moderate to fresh trades will cover the remainder of the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic will change little through through Saturday night. The high to the north will be forced eastward by a strong cold front that moves across the Atlantic basin. This will allow for winds over the central and eastern Caribbean to diminish slightly. Large northeast to east swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic waters will begin to mix with with northwest swell on Friday night before subsiding late on Sunday, with seas lowering to below 8 ft except in the far southeast part of zone AMZ037. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extends from near 26N65W to the southeast Bahamas, where it becomes stationary to the eastern tip of Cuba. A second cold front is about 90-120 nm to the northwest of the first cold front. The second cold front will soon merge with the first cold front. The merged front will then reach a position from near 26N65W to Haiti this evening. The portion of the front north of 26N will move east of 65W tonight, while the portion south of 26N will becomes stationary to northwest Haiti. This stationary front will then gradually weaken to a trough that will drift back to the west across the southeast Bahamas by Sunday. Strong high pressure building across the area behind the front will weaken Saturday as yet another cold front approaches the far northwest waters. Before the high pressure weakens, the gradient between it and the front will tighten. This will induce strong northeast winds within about 120 nm west of front south of 23N by early on Friday, with resultant seas of 8-10 ft. This area of winds shrinks in coverage early on Saturday, and diminishes on Sunday as the gradient slackens further with the approach of the next cold front to the forecast waters. However, the respite of strong wind conditions will be short-lived over the northern waters. Model are in very good agreement that this front will quickly move across the northern waters through late Sunday night. The front will be preceded and followed by strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft. Seas of 12 ft and higher are expected to be along and north of 31N per output of majority of the latest wave model guidances. It is possible that the higher seas may propagate to south of 31N over the weekend. Will make adjustments to winds and waveheights, if required, in future NDFD grids and text marine products. By late Sunday night and into Monday, lingering large northwest swell will maintain seas of 8-12 ft over zone AMZ115. These seas then subside to 6-8 ft on Tuesday as the swell energy propagates away from the forecast waters. Over the southeast zones, large trade wind swell will continue into the weekend, then subside to below 8 ft by late Sunday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning within 90 nm of coast of Colombia Fri night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.