000 AGXX40 KNHC 151845 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 245 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Latest and current buoy observations continue to reveal decreasing winds and seas throughout. A recent altimeter pass over the eastern portion of the basin corroborated well with buoy reports there. High pressure across the basin will become centered near the north central Gulf Thursday, then the northeast gulf Thursday night. The high will then retrograde to the northwest Gulf over the weekend. This pattern will support fresh northerly winds over the eastern Gulf through today as the high builds southeastward from the central U.S. Tonight, expect strong northeast winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche as a thermal trough moves off the coast of the Yucatan. Once the high settles over the northern Gulf on Thursday, light winds can be expected near the high center, with moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow around the high elsewhere over the Gulf. The exception will continue to be strong winds nightly over the eastern Bay of Campeche. This pattern will persist Thursday through the next several days. The southern part of a cold front will clip the northeast waters on Sunday with little effects other than a brief backing of the winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to 17N80W, and to the inland the border of Honduras/Nicaragua early this afternoon. The front is on track to stall out from the Windward Passage to the northern coast of Honduras late this afternoon or evening before weakening and dissipating on Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure building behind the front will support fresh to strong northeasterly winds across the northwest Caribbean, including to the immediate lee of Cuba and Windward Passage through the remainder of the week. The high, in combination with low pressure over northwest Colombia, will also cause a tightening of the pressure gradient across the southwest Caribbean, including near the coast of Colombia, where strong winds will pulse to near gale force Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights. These winds will pulse to the strong category Sunday night. The best probablilty for them to possibly reach minimal gale force is late Friday night when strong high pressure north of the area becomes centered near 31N74W, which is roughly due north of northwest Colombia. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades can be expected elsewhere over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic forecast waters through the upcoming weekend, then mainly moderate trades on Monday. Large trade wind induced swell over the tropical Atlantic waters will continue through Saturday night, finally diminishing below 8 ft by late Sunday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extending from near 31N65W to the southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba will continue to move east with the northern portion moving east of the northern zones tonight, while the southern portion reaches from 27N65W to the Windward Passage. This portion of the front will stall out from around 23N65W to the Windward passage around Thursday night. Mostly strong west to northwest winds will continue behind the front will continue over the waters north of 28N through tonight. Winds to near gale force are occurring north of 29N, but will also diminish tonight. Seas of 8 to 13 ft north of 27N will continue into Thursday, while shifting eastward with the front. High pressure building over the western Atlantic and the lingering stationary front will support strong northeast winds along and east of the southeast Bahamas Thursday night through Friday night with seas of 8 to 10 ft outside the protected areas of the Bahamas. Models are consistent in depicting the next cold front to reach the northwest waters Saturday night, and quickly move through over the remainder of the forecast waters through Sunday night. The differences in the models with the this front are with the associated winds. The majority of the global model guidance indicates strong winds ahead and behind the front with two showing southerly winds of 20-30 kt ahead of the front, and one showing same kind of winds behind it. For now will make the conclusion that 20-30 kt are likely east and west of the front, but make adjustments to forecast as needed based on future model guidance. Seas with these winds are expected to be in the 8 to 12 ft range. quickly moves eastward over the northern waters through Sunday. Large swell and fresh to strong northwest winds will continue over the northwest waters Sunday into Monday behind this front. Large trade wind swell over the southeastern zones will continue through the latter parts of the week, while northerly swell from the departing storm system to the north merges with the trade wind swell Friday night through Saturday. Swell will then decay to below 8 ft by Sunday evening as high pressure ridging builds eastward across the basin, however lingering swell with resultant combined seas to 9 or 10 ft will linger in the northeast portion into Monday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.