000 AGXX40 KNHC 141848 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 248 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... The cold front associated with the strong low pressure well north of the area has exited the basin as of this morning. A secondary reinforcing cold front is quickly progressing southeastward through the area, and extends from just south of Punta Gorda Florida to 24N90W, and to near 22.5N96.5W as of early this afternoon. Northerly winds are continuing to diminish in the wake of the fronts, with current buoy and latest Ascat data indicating mainly moderate to fresh winds east of 92W, and gentle winds west of 92W. The observations reveal seas in the 5-7 ft range east of 90W, with the exception of a small pocket of 5-8 ft seas within 60 nm north of the front east of about 88W. These seas are forecast to subside to 5-6 ft this evening. Seas west of 90W are in the 3-5 ft range, except for lower seas of 2-3 ft in the far northwest portion. Models indicate that the moderate to fresh northerly winds will continue over the southern half of the eastern gulf through most of Friday as the gradient remains rather tight there. High pressure building over the area will become centered near the northeastern Gulf Thursday through Saturday, with gentle winds developing over the northern Gulf. The high will be nudged westward late Saturday and Sunday as a cold front clips the far northeast part of the basin. Presently, models suggest that it should be a weaker front than the present and recent ones. Expect fresh to strong winds over the Bay of Campeche each night associated with a thermal trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... High pressure over the central Atlantic will support mainly fresh northeast to east trades over the central and eastern Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic zones through Thursday. The exception will be strong winds that are expected to persist near the coast of northeast Colombia with seas of 8-9 ft. The high pressure over the central Atlantic will weaken late this week which will allow the trades to decrease to around 15 kt over the eastern Caribbean and Atlantic zones over the upcoming weekend. Large trade wind induced swell will propagate over the tropical Atlantic waters throughout the week. A cold front extending from northwest Cuba to just east of southern Belize will reach a position from near northwestern Haiti to northern Honduras Wednesday night, then stall and weaken through Friday and dissipate Friday night. High pressure building to the north of the front will support fresh to strong northeast winds across the northwestern Caribbean beginning Wednesday night, persisting through Saturday afternoon. This high building north of the area will also help to maintain strong winds into the daytime hours north of the Colombia coast Thursday through Saturday, with near gale force to possibly gale winds developing Thursday and Friday night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... The strong cold front extends from near 31N73W to the central Bahamas and to west-central Cuba early this afternoon. Near gale to minimal gale force southerly winds are ahead of the front north of 29N. A secondary reinforcing cold front is rapidly moving eastward over the northwest portion of the area, and extends from near 31N76W to West Palm Beach as of early this afternoon. Strong to near gale force west to northwest winds are behind this front, with winds to frequent gusts north of 29N. Seas are in the 9-13 ft within the area of gale force winds east of the front, and 10-12 ft in the area of frequent gusts to gale force behind the front as noted in a recent altimeter pass. Winds elsewhere north and northeast of the Bahamas are southerly in the fresh to strong range, whereas winds elsewhere west of the secondary front are west to northwest in the fresh to strong range north of 25N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 25N. The first cold front is forecast to reach a position from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba early this evening, from near 31N66W to the southeast Bahamas and to eastern Cuba early on Wednesday, and from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage Wednesday night. The front will weaken and slow down as it loses its upper level dynamic support while it moves across the southeast portion Thursday. It is forecast to stall there on Thursday afternoon. The front will weaken further to a trough by Friday, and drift back to the west reaching the southeast Bahamas on Saturday. The secondary cold front will merge with the first front tonight. Strong high pressure will then build across the basin in the wake of the front, and weaken Saturday as another cold front approaches the far northwest portion. This next cold front will sweep across the northern waters on Sunday preceded and followed by strong winds and building seas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning for frequent gusts behind front north of 29N through tonight. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning through early this evening. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning through tonight. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.