000 AGXX40 KNHC 131851 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 251 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Low pressure of 1013 mb is analyzed over the north-central waters near 27N89W as of 18Z. A warm front extends from the low to 29N88W, and southeastward to southwest Florida. A cold front extends from the low southwest to the southwestern Bay of Campeche. A surface trough is analyzed from near 24N87W to 21N91W and to the far eastern Bay of Campeche and inland the Mexican coast at 19N91W. High pressure is nudging southward across the western waters behind the low pressure and cold front. Latest satellite imagery and NWS composite radar animation show extensive multilayer clouds with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms concentrated over much of the northeastern and central portions of the basin. The gradient between the low and high pressure to its north and west will increase through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight allowing for strong north to northeast to develop within about 90 nm of the low in the northern semicircle with seas 5-7 ft. The low will reach the far northeast waters by early tonight as the warm front lifts north-northeast of the gulf. Fresh to strong southwest to west winds are then expected within 120 nm southeast semicircle with fresh to strong continuing over portions of the north-central gulf waters in zones GMZ013 and GMZ019 behind the front. Models continue to depict the low moving across northern Fl and to the offshore waters off NE FL by early on Tuesday as it merges with another low and develops into a Nor'easter off the eastern United States coast. As the low exits the Gulf it will push the aforementioned cold front across the central and eastern Gulf. The front will exit the basin late on Tuesday as the front enters the NW Caribbean, and high pressure builds across the basin from the north. Expect mainly moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front. Beginning Wednesday night, fresh to strong winds will develop over the eastern Bay of Campeche associated with a thermal trough. These conditions are forecast to continue through Saturday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Relatively weak high pressure north of the region will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the central and eastern Caribbean through mid week, except for pulses of 20 to 25 kt off Colombia. Seas will peak to 8 ft during these strong pulses, except for 8-9 ft early on Tuesday. Northeast to east long-period swell producing seas of 8-9 ft will begin to invade the eastern portion of the Tropical North Atlantic zones on Tuesday, and reach to just east of the Leeward Islands and the northern part of the Windward Islands on Wednesday. The swell will then propagate southward to the northern and central portions of zone AMZ037 on Thursday, and then become confined to the northern half of the Tropical North Atlantic Friday night through Saturday. The Gulf of mexico cold front will reach from northwest Cuba to the Yucatan channel and to the northern Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday afternoon, then move across the northwest Caribbean Sea during the remainder of Tuesday afternoon and evening while weakening. The front is forecast to stall from the Windward Passage to Belize Wednesday, and dissipate Friday. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected over much of the northwest Caribbean and Atlantic passages Wednesday through Saturday as the gradient between strong high pressure north of the region and the front remains rather tight. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the southeast U.S. and a dissipating frontal trough over the northwest waters has tighten during the morning and afternoon. This has led to strong east winds north of 30N west of 75W, with seas of 8-12 ft. By late tonight, southeast gale force winds will develop north of 29N between 66W and 73W, and south to southwest gale force winds will develop north of 30N between 75W and 78W along and north of a warm front. As the low lifts northward offshore the southeast U.S. coast tonight, and then tracks northeast just offshore the mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Tuesday, additional southwest gale force winds will develop just ahead of a cold front that will enter the northwestern waters Tuesday morning from near 31N77W to near West Palm beach, then from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to western Cuba by early Tuesday afternoon, from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by early Tuesday night, from near Bermuda to the Windward passage Wednesday night and over the southeast waters Thursday. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will precede the cold front. The southerly gale force winds ahead of the front are forecast to diminish to just below gale force Tuesday night. The front will then stall out over the southeastern zones late Friday through Saturday while weakening. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will slowly weaken Friday through Saturday night allowing for a tight gradient behind the front over across the southeast waters to relax. Another cold front may approach the far northwest waters late Saturday preceded by strong southwest to west winds. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning tonight. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning north of 29N tonight into Tue. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning north of 29N tonight into Tue. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.