000 AGXX40 KNHC 110753 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 253 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level disturbance and surface trough is enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity over the northwestern Gulf. This activity will continue through Sunday. A weak area of high pressure over the north central Gulf will remain in tact until Sunday then dissipate. A thermal trough over the eastern Bay of Campeche supporting fresh to strong winds will dissipate later this morning. Mainly moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will prevail over the Gulf basin through tonight. Late tonight, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf with strong to near gale force winds expected north of the front with seas building to 9 ft. This area of strong winds is forecast to weaken below 20 kt Sunday night. An area of low pressure will accompany this front and will help to further enhance showers and thunderstorms across the area. This low will meander over the northwestern gulf as the frontal boundary stalls Sunday into Monday. Then, as an upper trough digs southeast across the central united States Monday, the low will be forced east the northeastward, merging with a larger system developing along the United States east coast. The low will drag a cold front across the central and eastern Gulf Monday night into Tuesday morning. Mainly fresh northerly winds are forecast behind the front Monday through Tuesday. Winds will veer over the western Gulf to northeast then east Wednesday as high pressure slides east, to the north of the basin. Fresh northerly winds will persist over the eastern Gulf into Wednesday night between departing low pressure off the eastern united States and the high pressure inland. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Fresh easterly trades will prevail over most of the the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. The exception will be occasionally strong winds over the south central Caribbean. Seas will peak near 8 ft at times under the stronger winds. Otherwise, seas will generally range from 5 to 7 ft over this portion of the basin. Moderate northeast winds will prevail over the northwest Caribbean until Tuesday, when a cold front is forecast to exit the southern gulf of Mexico and enter the NW portion of the basin. Fresh to possibly strong north to northeast winds will occur behind this front Tuesday night through Wednesday. Over the tropical Atlantic forecast waters, 8 to 12 ft swell generated by fresh to strong trades will gradually diminish below 8 ft through Sunday night as the high pressure north of the area weakens, and the trade winds decrease to about 15 kt. However, high pressure is expected to rebuild northeast of the region on Tuesday which will bring about a return of fresh to strong trades and seas building to 8 to 10 ft, particularly north of about 12N. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front cross the northwestern zones will stall out along about 27N later today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind this front supporting seas of 7 to 9 ft will continue through this morning, with lingering swell of 8 to 9 ft propagating east over the northeastern zones tonight. Trade wind induced swell of 8 to 9 ft over the southeastern zones will diminish below 8 ft by Sunday. The forecast becomes complex going into Sunday over our northern waters as low pressure is forecast to develop along the tail end of the stationary front Sunday night. A new cold front will emerge off the coast of the southeastern United States and merge with the developing low, probably somewhere off the coast of central or northern Florida Sunday night. Models are in agreement on the low rapidly deepening as it moves northeast, and north of our area by Monday night. Winds, showers, and thunderstorms will increase in the vicinity of the developing low as well as along a developing warm from extending from the low, eastward over our northeastern waters. Global models are in good agreement on winds north of the warm front and near the low to increase to gale force Monday afternoon into Monday night. Current wave guidance builds seas to 8 to 14 feet over our northern waters Sunday night through Monday as the system develops and lifts northeast of the area. Once the low is north of our area Monday night, a cold front will sweep southeast over the SW N Atlantic. This front will likely reach from Bermuda to near the Windward Passage by Wednesday night. Strong to near gale northerly winds will prevail west of the front with strong southerly winds east of the front through Wednesday night, north of about 27N, with seas of 8 to 14 ft, highest along our northern forecast border of 31N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon into Tue. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.