000 AGXX40 KNHC 100654 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over the northern Gulf will meander over the region the next couple of days while slowly dissipating. A cold front will reach the far northeastern Gulf tonight and will then shift eastward over the Atlantic waters. The high pressure will finally dissipate by Sunday as a stronger cold front approaches the northern Gulf. This cold front will enter the northern Gulf waters Sunday morning and reach from the Florida big bend to near Tampico, Mexico Sunday evening. The forecast becomes more complex beyond Sunday, as models are trying to indicate the development of low pressure over the western Gulf as well as the western Atlantic near the frontal boundary as it stalls out over the region. The positioning and intensities of these lows will impact the forecast location for the fronts as well as how strong winds will be in association with these frontal lows. The current forecast calls for mainly moderate to fresh northerly winds north of the front and low Sunday night into Monday with seas of 4 to 6 ft. By Monday night, a deep upper trough will dig southward over the eastern United States, which will send the low northeastward while forcing the cold front southeastward over the rest of the Gulf as strong high pressure builds in from the central United States. Fresh to strong northerly winds will spread across much of the Gulf basin behind the front Tuesday into Tuesday night as seas build to 5 to 7 ft. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... One final morning of gale force winds will pulse over the waters along the northeast Colombia coast this morning, before the pressure gradient begins to relax across the region. By this afternoon, expect fresh to locally strong trades to prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Gentle to moderate easterlies are expected over the northwest Caribbean. Winds tonight will still increase along the coast of Colombia. However, they will only do so to 25 to 30 kt. The pressure gradient will then decrease further into this weekend as high pressure to the north of the region weakens. This will result in additional slight decreases in trade winds over the basin, with 15 to 20 kt winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominating the central and eastern Caribbean Sunday through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate winds will continue across the northwestern Caribbean through Tuesday, before a cold front enters the area from the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday night accompanied by fresh to strong northerly winds, building seas to 5 to 7 ft. Over the tropical Atlantic forecast waters, fresh to strong trades supporting 8 to 13 ft seas will slowly diminish through the weekend as the high pressure over the central Atlantic supporting these trades weakens and shifts eastward. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... High pressure across the northern waters will weaken and shift southeastward the next couple of days as a cold front approaches the northwestern waters this afternoon. The front will cross the northwestern waters tonight and then reach from about 31N60W to south Florida by Saturday night. The front will continue to move eastward while slowly weakening through Sunday. Fresh to strong southwesterly winds will develop east of the approaching front over our northern waters mainly north of 29N today through tonight. Winds will become fresh to strong northerly north of 29N as the front passes tonight over the area through Saturday. Winds will diminish below 20 kt as the front begins to weaken late Saturday. Expect seas north of 29N to build to 8 to 9 ft during this period of strong winds, with swell of 8 to 9 ft likely propagating across much of the northeastern zones Saturday night through Sunday. Meanwhile, fresh trades combined with a large area of northeasterly swell will support seas of 8 to 10 ft over the southeastern zones through Sunday. The forecast becomes a bit complex beyond Sunday as models are trying to get a handle on the development of low pressure along or just offshore of the Florida east coast late Sunday, as a new cold front emerges of the southeastern Unites States. Current model consensus has the low developing near central Florida late Sunday, then tracking northeast across our northwestern zones Monday accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms. Current wave guidance builds seas to 8 to 10 ft north of 28N as the low and associated frontal boundaries support fresh to locally strong winds over the area. By Tuesday the low will move north of our area and a cold front will begin to sweep southeastward across our northern zones accompanied by strong to possibly near gale northwesterly winds with seas building to 8 to 12 ft north of the Bahamas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.