000 AGXX40 KNHC 091902 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from just north of the Tampa Bay area to the central Texas coast. This front is in the process of becoming diffuse and should dissipate later today as high pressure north of the area dominates the weather pattern. Model guidance indicates that a high pressure center of 1023 mb will develop over the NE Gulf in about 24 hours. A thermal trough will develop during the evening hours over the Yucatan Peninsula before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong northeast to east winds will accompany this trough through Saturday night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh east to southeast flow will prevail. Seas will be 2-4 ft in the northern Gulf, 3-5 ft in the central Gulf, and 4-6 ft in the southern Gulf. Another cold front will clip the northeast Gulf Friday afternoon and night. A third and stronger cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Sunday morning, weakening as it progresses across the basin through Monday. A reinforcing front with building high pressure behind it will move across the region Monday night through Tuesday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The most recent scatterometer data showed a broad area of wind barbs with 35 kt across the south-central Caribbean. A Gale Warning remains in effect for that region through tonight. Strong high pressure north of the area will support strong to minimal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia one more time tonight into early Friday, with fresh to strong trades elsewhere east of 80W, and moderate to fresh winds west of 80W on Friday. Thereafter, winds and seas are forecast to diminish across the basin as high pressure located north of the area shifts farther east. Recent altimeter passes and model guidance indicate seas up to 12-15 ft across the area of gales, 7-11 ft across the area of fresh to strong winds except 8-12 ft in the tropical north Atlantic, and 4-7 ft west of 80W. Mainly quite marine conditions are expected basin-wide for the end of the weekend into next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front has entered the NW waters and extends from 31N75W to just north of the Tampa Bay area. Mainly gentle winds area noted on either side of the front, with a small area of fresh to locally strong SW winds just ahead of the front and north of 30N. The front is forecast to reach a position from Bermuda to central Florida this evening, where it will stall and become diffuse through early Friday. High pressure of 1030 mb located east of the front near 31N55W continues to support fresh to strong easterly winds south of 22N, including the approaches to the Windward Passage. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through tonight as high pressure shifts eastward. A slightly stronger cold front will move south of 31N Friday night through Saturday, reaching along 26N-27N by Saturday evening while weakening. Fresh to strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the front, particularly N of 30N by Friday evening. Similar wind speeds but from the N will follow the front with seas briefly building to 8-10 ft. Winds will veer to the SE and S over the NW waters early on Sunday as a low pressure system likely develops just off the Carolinas coast. Winds will further increase across the north- central and NE waters on Monday in association with the same low pressure system forecast by the computer models to intensify. So far, marine guidance suggests winds in the 20-30 kt range and building seas of 8-10 ft. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.