000 AGXX40 KNHC 061908 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 208 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Strong 1035 mb high pressure shifting E off the mid atlc coast causing ridge to shift slowly Ewd as well, and gradually reducing pres gradient across the basin. Ely flow continues in the Straits where winds have diminished to around 25 kt per recent ~15Z ASCAT pass. Fresh to strong SE flow prevails across rest of basin as high is opening up into deep layered low pres across Nrn Plains. A SE to NW fetch of 20-25 kt winds from Straits to offshore of SE Louisiana is yielding an area of 8-12 ft seas per buoy obs and morning altimeter data. Seas in the Straits were also 8-12 ft this morning per altimeter data along about 80-81W. SE wind swell is reaching NW gulf attm to yield 6-8 ft. The next cold front will approach the NW Gulf Tuesday with the pressure gradient significantly weakening across the basin allowing for winds to diminish to mainly gentle to moderate, except locally fresh to strong through the Straits of Florida and north of the Yucatan Peninsula. That front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to the central Texas coast Wednesday morning, then will quickly weaken and dissipate as it lies across the central Gulf through Wednesday night. Mainly gentle to moderate return flow will then make a comeback for the end of the week, locally fresh near the Straits of Florida and north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Max seas during this time only reaching 5-6 ft, possibly to 7 ft NW of Yucatan. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... 1035 mb high shifting off the mid Atlc coast attm nudging front farther SE and across Hispaniola and into N coast of Puerto Rico, with tightening pres gradient producing strong to gale force winds across much of the basin W of 67W. 25-30 kt winds were depicted by morning ASCAT pass in lee of Cuba and just offshore of Barahona Peninsula in the DR and assumed to prevail in the Windward Passage. Gales have briefly subsided across the Colombia coastal waters. Recent obs and altimeter data indicate seas well downstream from leeward winds off Cuba producing seas 10-14 ft into NW portions, 10-12 ft in Windward Passage, 10-13 ft downstream of plume from Mona Passage past Barahona and into central portions, 10-15 ft off Colombia, and 5-6 ft E of 67W. Rough seas are thus the rule. Global models suggest pres gradient to tighten again this afternoon and tonight and produce gales through Windward passage and off Barahona briefly, before the ridge begins to shift E of 70W Tue night when gradient will begin to gradually relax. Frontal boundary will sink SE across the NE Carib next 48 hours and weaken to a shearline, accompanied through Tue by sct to numerous quickly passing low topped showers. Remnant boundary will reach Nrn Windwards by Thu. Winds will diminish in the northwest Caribbean by the middle through the end of the week as the ridge shifts into central Atlc and rest of Carib and Tropical N Atlc waters remain under strong E to ENE trades. Colombian winds may pulse to gale almost every night through Thu. Large Nly swell generated across the N Atlc will move into the Carib passages and tropical N Atlc waters tonight through Tue to create seas 12 ft and higher in the Mona and Anegada Passages and nrn tropical Atlc waters. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Strong ridge along eastern seaboard forcing front into coastal waters of Puerto Rico and N portions of tropical Atlc waters. Strong winds 25 to locally 30 kt continue within about 180 nm N of front from Mona Passage to central Bahamas, while farther N winds are 20-25 kt generally S of 29N. Rough and confused seas are developing as high seas generated by this wind field are beginning to be overtaken by large Nly swell moving into waters E of 72W. This will make for dangerous merging swell tonight through Tue night across E and SE portions where seas will remain above 12 ft for over 24 hours. Buoy 41046 drifting into far SE Bahamas has remained 10-11 ft past 8 hrs. As the high shifts slowly E tonight, gales are expected to return in the Windward Passage, while front will sink SE into the NE Carib. Winds will diminish from north to south as the strong high pressure supporting the winds drops to the ESE Tue through the middle of the week. Southerly return flow will setup north of 27N by the middle of the week ahead of the next cold front. That front will enter the northwest portion Wednesday afternoon, extending from 31N69W to the northern Bahamas Thursday morning, then weakening as it continues to the southeast. Other than a wind-shift, not much impact is currently forecast with this next front. Light to moderate anticyclonic flow will prevail in the wake of the front by the end of the week into the weekend across the waters north of 22N with moderate to fresh trades south of 22N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Gale Warning tonight. .AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... Gale Warning tonight. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning today into Tue. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night into Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.