000 AGXX40 KNHC 051934 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 234 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure over the NE U.S. extends a ridge nearly S along 80W and continues to dominate the weather pattern across the basin with fresh to strong easterly flow observed across the majority of the basin this morning. Global models and regional obs suggest that strong to gale force Ely winds continue across the Straits where seas are likely 8-12 ft. Broad fetch of past 36-48 hrs has generated area of 8-9 ft seas that extend well downstream to about 96W across Tx coastal waters and to vcnty of 42055 in SW Gulf. Stlt imagery suggests sfc trough lingering across SW Gulf offshore of Veracruzand extends NW to near La Pesca. East to southeast return flow has developed today and expected to continue through the early part of the week with winds diminishing west of 90W Monday as the weaker gradient moves in, while gales expected to end across the Straits by 06Z tonight. Winds will continue to diminish eastward through the middle of the week, except near the Straits of Florida and north of the Yucatan Peninsula where fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse through Tue night, weakening thereafter. The next cold front will move into the northwest and north-central Gulf Wednesday, weakening significantly across the basin Wednesday night and dissipating Thursday with high pressure over the Carolinas again controlling the weather across the basin for the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Winds off Colombia are assumed to have fallen just below gale force this afternoon but will return by 00Z under typical nocturnal pattern. The pulsing to gales is expected to continue through Thursday morning. Elsewhere fresh to strong NE to E trades dominate W of 69W. a 1510Z ASCAT pass captured solid 25 kt NE wind through Windward Passage and area of 30 kt off of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring elsewhere E of 69W, while winds are starting to freshen across the tropical north Atlantic. Seas are 10-13 ft near the coast of colombia, 7-11 ft in the northwest Caribbean, 4-7 ft in the east Caribbean, and 8-10 ft in the tropical north Atlantic. Atlc cold front will sink SE next few days and across Greater Antilles and stall and wash out across NE Carib by Wed. Strong high pres behind front will produce fresh to strong trades expanding E and SE and to encompass the entire basin Monday night. GFS suggests reasonable chance for gales through Windward Passage tonight and then briefly across Srn coastal waters of Barahona Peninsula of Dom Rep Mon, and have worked that into the grids. Winds will then diminish in the northwest Caribbean by the middle through the end of the week as the high north of the area shifts eastward. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A slow moving cold front extends from 24N60W to Ern Cuba and has nearly merged with a reinforcing front moving in just behind it. A band of low to mid clouds and embedded light to moderate showers cover most of the area within 120 nm N of the front. A partial 14-15Z ASCAT pass across the central and SE Bahamas showed significant area of 30 kt NE winds N of the front and gusts to gale force a given with this ob, so gale warning looks good for much of area just N of front from Straits to lee of SE Bahamas. Elsewhere N of front strong winds are observed south of 29N and west of the front, while, fresh to strong winds are elsewhere west of the front. Seas E of the Bahamas and between 25N and front have built to 10-15 ft, with 8-12 ft elsewhere west of the front except 5-8 ft in the far northwest corner. Seas are 6-8 ft east of the front. Buoy 41046 is adrift from its moored position and now moving through far SE Bahamas N of Little Inagua and reporting 11 ft seas, well above any guidance except lower res ECWave. The cold front will move southeastward while weakening, extending from 22N60W to just N of the Mona Passage this evening, exiting into the NE Carib on Monday. Fresh to near gale force winds will persist south of 27N through Tuesday morning, then will diminish from north to south as the strong high pressure supporting the winds drops to the east-southeast through the middle of the week. A strong pulse of large NNW to N swell will move into the NE waters this evening and continue swd through Wed and mix with the high seas persisting N of the front to create high and very confused seas late Mon through early Wed, with combined seas peaking 12-15 ft S of 24N between 60W and 72W Mon night and Tue. Southerly return flow will setup north of 27N by the middle of the week as this occurs and ahead of the next cold front. That front will enter the northwest portion Wednesday afternoon, extending from 31N69W to the northern Bahamas Thursday morning, then weakening as it continues to the southeast. Other than a wind-shift, not much impact is currently forecast with this next front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... Gale Warning today into tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Gale Warning tonight. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight into Mon. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... Gale Warning today into tonight. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Gale Warning tonight. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.