000 AGXX40 KNHC 040651 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 151 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front that moved into the southern part of the basin yesterday has stalled and is dissipating. Low pressure that formed along the boundary near 22N96W remains with a stationary front extending southeast from the low to near the isthmus of Tehuantepec. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict strong to near gale winds across the basin, with return flow starting to setup in the northwest gulf around high pressure across the Mississippi Valley. Seas are in the 8-12 ft across much of the basin, except in the northeast gulf where they are 4-7 ft. Winds will diminish slightly over the west-central and southwest waters today, while the fresh to strong winds continue over the eastern waters through Monday with southerly return flow prevailing across the basin early next week. Winds will diminish Tuesday. The next cold front may enter the northwest portion late Tuesday night, reaching from the western Florida Panhandle to the Texas coast Wednesday morning, sinking south through the day. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict gale force winds offshore of northwest Colombia with fresh to strong winds elsewhere south of 16N, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 10-15 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 7-10 ft elsewhere east of 80W, 3-5 ft over the far northwest Caribbean, and 5-8 ft over the remainder of the Caribbean, except up to 8-10 ft near the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong winds with seas in the 8-11 ft range prevail over the tropical north Atlantic waters. Winds will continue to pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia through Wednesday night, peaking near 40 kt in the next several hours and again in the early hours of Sunday. Winds may also reach gale force downwind of the Windward Passage Sunday night, although model guidance has trended lower for gale force probabilities. Winds will diminish over the eastern Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic this weekend when high pressure north of the area retreats eastward ahead of a cold front moving off the southeast coast of the United States. High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front, which will increase winds over the western Caribbean waters late this weekend into early next week. Winds will diminish in the northwest Caribbean by the middle of the week as the pressure gradient weakens there. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front extends from 30N65W to the central Bahamas. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict fresh to strong winds west of the front, and light to moderate winds ahead of the front, except moderate to fresh trades south of 22N. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range west of the front outside the Bahamas, 4-7 ft elsewhere outside the Bahamas, and 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas. The cold front will move southeastward while weakening, extending from 25N65W through the southeast Bahamas to northeast Cuba this evening, then from 22N61W to the Mona Passage Sunday evening as a weakening front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with fresh to strong winds and seas reaching near 10-14 ft prevailing over much of the forecast waters south of 27N by Sunday. Winds will diminish across the waters north of 27N early next week. The next cold front may enter the northwest portion Wednesday, reaching from 31N68W to the northern Bahamas by Thursday morning. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning this morning. Gale Warning tonight into early Sun. Gale Warning Sun night into early Mon. Gale Conditions Possible Mon night into early Tue. Gale Conditions Possible Tue night into early Wed. Gale Conditions Possible Wed night into early Thu. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... Gale Warning this morning. Gale Warning Tonight into early Sun. Gale Warning Sun night into early Mon. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.