000 AGXX40 KNHC 020747 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 247 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium to High confidence. A cold front is moving across the Gulf waters followed by fresh to strong northerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force. Buoys observations indicate sea heights of 6-7 ft behind the front, forecast to reach a position from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico Mexico this morning, and from south Florida to the Bay of Campeche tonight. Then, the front will move SE of the Gulf early Friday. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected across the west-central Gulf this afternoon, and across the SW Gulf tonight. As a result, a gale warning is in effect for forecast zones GMZ017 and GMZ023. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will support strong north to northeast winds through Friday, becoming eastward Friday night into Saturday. As the strong winds expand eastward over the entire Gulf on Friday, seas will build to 8-10 ft across most of the region. These marine conditions will persist through Sunday, with seas further building to 11 ft across the SE Gulf by Saturday night. Southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf Sunday night into Monday. At that time, fresh to strong E-SE winds will continue to affect the central and eastern Gulf with seas of 8-10 ft. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from west to east on Monday. A thermal trough is currently over the Yucatan Peninsula producing moderate to fresh NE winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche based on latest scatterometer pass. The trough will move westward across the SW Gulf early this morning, and dissipate later today. By Monday evening, winds will increase again near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with this feature. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Persistent fresh to strong trades will continue to dominate the Caribbean and Tropical North Atlc forecast waters through the forecast period as a strong high pressure ridge remains in control to the north. Strong to near gale force winds will pulse to minimal gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia each night through Monday night. A Gale Warning remains posted for that area accordingly. Recent scatterometer passes show that strong trades cover most of the east and central Caribbean. Wave guidance builds seas to 14-16 ft with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia, with seas of 8-11 ft affecting virtually all of the Caribbean waters S of 18N and E of 82W by tonight. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail over the Tropical N Atlantic forecast waters through early Sunday. Another strong high pressure system will build over the western Atlantic during the upcoming weekend. This will support the development of strong northeast winds across the Yucatan Channel, much of the northwestern Caribbean and the Windward Passage through at least Monday night. Seas will build to 9 to 10 ft in the Yucatan Channel on Saturday and to 8-9 ft in the Windward Passage by Saturday night. On Sunday, seas of 8-10 ft are expected across most of the NW and central Caribbean, including also the Yucatan Channel and the Windward Passage. Also on Sunday, winds are expected to briefly diminish to 15-20 kt across the Tropical N Atlantic waters and the eastern Caribbean as a cold front moves across the central Atlantic weakening the ridge. Winds will gradually increase on Monday and Tuesday as the high pressure ridge to the north rebuilds. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast region. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted over the NW part ahead of the next cold front forecast to move into the area this morning. Fresh to strong easterly winds continue to affect the waters south of 22N with seas of 8-9 ft east of the Bahamas. The next cold front is forecast to reach from near Bermuda to south Florida tonight. Mainly fresh N to NE winds are expected behind the front with seas of 6-7 ft. On Friday and Friday night, winds will increase to 20-25 kt north of the front, with seas building as high as 10-11 ft just east of the central Bahamas. The cold front will move southeastward and extend from 28N65W through the central Bahamas to central Cuba by Friday night, then from 24N65W to eastern Cuba on Saturday night as a weakening front. At that time, strong high pressure following the front will generate fresh to strong winds north of the front and seas of 10-12 ft east of the Bahamas. Across the Straits of Florida, expect the onset of fresh to strong northerly winds by Fri evening with seas building to 8 ft. North to northeast winds of 25-30 kt are expected by Saturday morning with seas building up to 9-10 ft. These marine conditions are forecast to persist through Sunday night. On Monday, fresh to strong easterly winds are expected across the forecast waters south of 27N with seas of 9-13 ft east of the Bahamas, while moderate to fresh NE-E winds are forecast north of 27N with seas of 8-10 ft across the NE waters in N swell. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. Gale Warning tonight into Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.