000 AGXX40 KNHC 011919 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 219 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium to High confidence. High pressure over the central Atlc ridges westward over the Gulf. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds along the west flank of the ridge over the Gulf. A cold front is entering the Gulf waters. The front will reach from around Tampa Florida to near Veracruz Mexico around midday on Thursday, then from south Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Thursday night. The front will stall and begin to wash out over southern Gulf toward the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front. Seas will build to 9-10 ft over the NW Gulf by noon on Thursday and to between 8 and 11 ft within 60 nm of the Mexican coast near both Tampico and Veracruz as NW to N winds briefly pulse to minimal gale force as the barrier jet sets up. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will support strong north to northeast winds through Friday, then backing to east Friday night into Saturday. As the fresh to strong winds expand eastward over the entire Gulf on Friday, seas will build to 8-10 ft across most of the basin. These marine conditions will persist through Sunday, with seas further building to 11 ft across the SE Gulf by early Sunday morning. Winds and seas will subside below advisory levels by Tuesday morning as east to southeast return flow develops across the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Persistent fresh to strong trades will continue to dominate the Caribbean and Tropical North Atlc forecast waters through the forecast period as a strong high pressure ridge remains in control to the north. Strong to near gale force winds will pulse to minimal gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia each night through Sunday night. A Gale Warning remains posted for that area accordingly. The strong trades will expand eastward to cover all of the central and eastern Caribbean by tonight, then retreat westward to around 70W by Saturday morning. Seas will build to 13-16 ft with the strongest winds focusing in the usual location near the north coast of Colombia. Marine guidance shows seas in the 8-11 ft affecting virtually all of the Caribbean waters S of 18N and E of 82W by Thursday afternoon. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail over the Tropical N Atlantic forecast waters until Sunday evening. Another strong high pressure system will build over the western Atlc during the upcoming weekend. This will support the development of strong northeast winds across the Yucatan Channel, much of the northwestern Caribbean and the Windward Passage through Monday morning. Seas will build to 9 to 10 ft in the Yucatan Channel on Saturday and to 8-9 ft in the Windward Passage by Saturday night. On Sunday, seas of 8-10 ft are expected across most of the NW and central Caribbean, including also the Yucatan Channel and the Windward Passage. Also on Sunday, winds are expected to briefly diminish to 15-20 kt across the Tropical N Atlantic waters and the eastern Caribbean as low pressure moving east from the United States weakens the ridge to the north. Winds will gradually increase on Monday and Tuesday as the high pressure ridge to the north rebuilds. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure centered over the mid Atlc continues producing fresh to strong winds across the waters south of 22N. Moderate to fresh winds are observed elsewhere. The high pressure will shift SE during the next 24 hours, but maintain ridging over the forecast waters through Thursday. Beneath the ridge, expect fresh to strong easterly winds across the waters south of 22N through Thursday, with seas building to 8-9 ft east of the Bahamas. The next cold front is forecast to reach the NW waters on Thursday morning, extending from near Bermuda to south Florida by Thursday night. Mainly fresh N to NE winds are expected behind the front with seas of 6-7 ft. On Friday and Friday night, winds will increase to 20-25 kt north of the front, with seas building as high as 10 ft east of the Bahamas near 25N75W. The cold front will proceed southeastward and extend from 31N62W through the central Bahamas to central Cuba by Friday night, then from 31N53W to eastern Cuba on Saturday night as a weakening front. At that time, strong high pressure following in the wake of the front will generate fresh to strong winds north of the front and seas of 10-11 ft east of the Bahamas. Across the Straits of Florida, expect the onset of fresh to strong northerly winds by Fri evening with seas building to 8 ft. North to northeast winds of 25-30 kt are expected by Saturday morning with seas of 9-10 ft. These marine conditions are forecast to persist through Sunday night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Thu night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.