000 AGXX40 KNHC 010739 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 239 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium to High confidence. High pressure over the central Atlantic extends a ridge across the Gulf region producing moderate to fresh southeast to south winds over the majority of the Gulf. Winds have increased across the Straits of Florida, where scatterometer data show fresh to locally strong easterly winds. A thermal trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will move westward across the SW Gulf early this morning, supporting locally strong winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. By this afternoon, a cold front will enter the Gulf waters, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico Mexico early Thursday morning, and from south Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Thursday night. The front then stalls and washes out across the extreme southern Gulf toward the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front with building seas up to 9-10 ft. Again, marine guidance suggests strong to near gale force winds across the western and SW Gulf, behind the front, on Thursday. So, it is not out of the question that winds could briefly reach minimal gale force across that area. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will support strong north to northeast winds through Friday, becoming eastward Friday night into Saturday. Wave guidance builds seas to 8-9 ft across the western Gulf late Wednesday night through Thursday night. As the strong winds expand eastward over the entire Gulf on Friday, seas will build to 8-10 ft across most of the region. These marine conditions will persist through Sunday, with seas further building to 11 ft across the SE Gulf by early Sunday morning. Southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf Sunday night into Monday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Persistent fresh to strong trades will dominate the Caribbean and Tropical North Atlantic forecast waters through most of the forecast period. Strong to minimal gale force winds will occur within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia each night through Sunday night. A Gale Warning remains in effect for that area. The strong trades will expand eastward to cover all of the central and eastern Caribbean by tonight, lasting through Saturday. Seas will build to 13-15 ft with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. Marine guidance shows seas in the 8-11 ft affecting most of Caribbean waters S of 18N and E of 82W by Thurday night. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail over the Tropical N Atlantic forecast waters. Another strong area of high pressure will build over the western Atlantic over the upcoming weekend which will support the development of strong northeast winds across the Yucatan Channel, much of the northwestern Caribbean and the Windward Passage, with seas building to 9 to 10 ft in the Yucatan Channel on Saturday, and to 8-9 ft in the Windward Passage by Saturday night. On Sunday, seas of 8-10 ft are expected across most of the NW and central Caribbean, including also the Yucatan Channel and the Windward Passage. Also on Sunday, winds are expected to briefly diminish to 15-20 kt across the Tropical N Atlantic waters and the eastern Caribean. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure located NE of the area is producing fresh to strong winds across the waters south of 22N, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. The high pressure will shift SE over the next 24 hours, extending a ridge across the forecast waters through Thursday. Under the influence of the ridge, expect fresh to strong easterly winds across the waters south of 22N through Thursday, with seas building to 8-9 ft east of the Bahamas. The next cold front is forecast to reach the NW waters on Thursday morning, extending from near Bermuda to south Florida by Thursday night. Mainly fresh northerly winds are expected behind the front with seas of 6-7 ft. On Friday, winds will further increase to 20-25 kt in the wake of the front, with seas building to 8 ft. Then, the front is forecast to extend from 30N65W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba by Friday night, and from 26N65W to eastern Cuba on Saturday while weakening. At that time, strong high pressure in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong winds behind the front and seas up to 10-11 ft east of the Bahamas. Across the Straits of Florida, expect fresh to strong northerly winds by Fri evening with seas building to 8 ft. N-NE winds of 25-30 kt are expected on Saturday with seas of 9-10 ft. These marine conditions are forecast to persist through at least early Sunday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Thu night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night into Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.