000 AGXX40 KNHC 281804 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium to High confidence. High pressure over the western Atlantic with a ridge axis across the northern Gulf will continue to support moderate to fresh southeast winds over the majority of the Gulf basin through Wednesday. Tonight, a thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula and move westward, supporting locally strong winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. By late Wednesday afternoon a cold front will begin to cross the northwestern Gulf. Model guidance is in very good agreement on taking the front southeastward to extend from south Florida to the bay of Campeche by Thursday night. The front then stalls and washes out across the extreme southern Gulf toward the weekend. Strong high pressure building behind the front will support strong north to northeast winds through Friday, becoming eastward Friday night into Saturday. The strong winds will then become confined to the southern Gulf Saturday night. Wave guidance builds seas to 8 ft across the western Gulf late Wednesday night through Thursday night. As the strong winds expand eastward over the entire Gulf basin Friday, 8 to 10 ft seas will expand to cover most of the offshore waters Friday into Saturday. The 8 to 10 ft seas will continue over the southern Gulf into Sunday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Persistent fresh to strong trades will dominate the Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic forecast waters through the forecast period. Nocturnal gales will occur within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia each night through Saturday night. The strong trades will expand eastward to cover all of the central and eastern Caribbean by Wednesday night, lasting until the end of the forecast period. Seas of 8 to 13 ft will persist across the Caribbean south of 18N and east of 82W through the entire forecast period. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail over the tropical Atlantic forecast waters. Another strong area of high pressure will build over the western Atlantic over the upcoming weekend which will support the development of strong northeast winds across much of the northwestern Caribbean with seas building to 8 to 9 ft. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A stationary front from 26N65W to 26N70W will dissipate through tonight. High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong easterly winds south of 22N through the middle of the week. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are expected across this area outside of the Bahamas. A cold front will enter the northwestern waters Thursday and reach from Bermuda to South Florida on Friday, and then from 26N65W to eastern Cuba on Saturday. Strong high pressure building behind this front will support strong northeast winds and seas building to 8 to 12 ft through Saturday night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... Gale Warning tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.