000 AGXX40 KNHC 280735 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 235 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge across the Gulf region producing mainly moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and seas generally below 6 ft. These marine conditions are forecast to persist through most of the day Wednesday. A thermal trough will developd over the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to locally strong winds will accompany this trough through Wednesday evening. Model guidance continues to bring a cold front across the northwestern Gulf by Wednesday afternoon, reaching from northern Florida to near Tuxpan Mexico by early Thursday morning, and from south Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Thursday night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas up to 9-10 ft are expected behind the front. However, models have been trending away from winds nearing gale force over the southwestern Gulf for Thursday. Beyond Thursday, strong high pressure north of the Gulf will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the majority of the basin Thursday night through Saturday with seas of 8-10 ft. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong winds across the east and central Caribbean, the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras, including also the Tropical N Atlantic waters. Strong to gale force winds are noted within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Sea heights of 8-10 ft are over the south-central Caribbean, reaching 12-13 ft near the coast of Colombia with the strongest winds. Seas of 8-9 ft are in the Tropical N Atlantic waters mainly north of 12N. These marine conditions are associated with a strong high pressure system located north of the area. The high pressure will move eastward over the next 24-48 hours, keeping a tight pressure gradient across the basin. As a result, fresh to strong winds will continue to blow across the east and central Caribbean, and the Tropical N Atlantic waters, with pulsing winds to gale force at night within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through at least Friday night. Seas of 8 to 13 ft will cover the south central Caribbean through the period, and will expand north and eastward through the middle of the week as the stronger trades expand eastward over the east Caribbean. Over the tropical Atlantic waters, expect 8 to 10 ft seas to prevail under the fresh to strong trades through the week. By Fri evening, expect increasing winds to 20-25 kt and building seas of 8-9 ft across the Yucatan Channel due to the presence of a strong high pressure over the SE CONUS. Winds will also increase in the lee of Cuba by Friday night into Saturday, and across the Windward Passage by late Saturday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure located north of the area is producing fresh to strong winds across the waters south of 22N, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. The high pressure will shift eastward over the next 24-48 hours, extending a ridge across the forecast waters through Thursday. Under the influence of the ridge, expect fresh to strong easterly winds across the waters south of 22N through Thursday, with seas building to 8-9 ft east of the Bahamas. The next cold front is forecast to reach the NW waters early Thursday morning, extending from near Bermuda to south- central Florida on Thursday night. Mainly fresh northerly winds are expected behind the front with seas of 6-7 ft. On Friday, winds will further increase to 20-25 kt in the wake of the front with seas building to 8 ft. The front is forecast to extend from 29N65W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba by Friday night, and from 26N65W to eastern Cuba on Saturday. At that time, expect fresh to strong winds behind the front and seas up to 10-11 ft east of the Bahamas. Similar marine conditions are expected across the Straits of Florida. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.