000 AGXX40 KNHC 271835 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 135 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure over the western Atlantic will support mainly moderate to fresh southeasterly winds across the Gulf through most of the day Wednesday, with the exception occasionally strong winds due to a thermally induced trough off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Wave guidance agrees on generally 3 to 5 ft seas over the open waters, except tapering to 2 to 4 ft as one nears the coast of Florida during this time period. Model guidance continues to bring a cold front across the northwestern Gulf by Wednesday afternoon, reaching from south Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Thursday night. Latest model guidance brings fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front. However, models have been trending away from winds nearing gale force over the southwestern gulf for Thursday. Beyond Thursday, strong high pressure north of the Gulf will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds Thursday night through Saturday over the majority of the basin with wave guidance forecasting seas of 6 to 8 ft. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure building over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and western Caribbean, with fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean, Windward passage, and tropical Atlantic forecast waters. These trades over the region will increase over the next two days by another couple of knots, with these enhanced trades persisting for the next several days. Each night for the remainder of the forecast period, winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia due to nocturnal enhancements. Seas of 8 to 13 ft will cover the south central Caribbean through the period, and will expand north and eastward through the middle of the week as the stronger trades expand eastward over the east Caribbean. Over the tropical Atlantic waters, expect 8 to 10 ft seas to prevail under the fresh to strong trades through the week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure building just north of the region will shift east, to the north of the area the next couple of days. This pattern will support moderate to fresh easterly winds north of 25N, with fresh to strong easterly winds south of 25N, with the strongest winds along the coast of Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward Passage. Trade wind induced swell of 8 to 10 ft will affect the southeastern zones north of the Leeward Islands throughout most of the week. A cold front is forecast to reach the northwestern zones by Thursday and then move slowly southeast across the northwestern waters into Friday. Then, strong high pressure will begin to build in north of the front, bringing about an increase in northeast winds to 20 to 25 kt Friday through at least Saturday mainly north of 24N, as the front continues to sag southeastward. Current wave guidance builds seas behind the front in these strong winds to 8 to 12 ft, highest along the northern forecast border of 31N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Tue night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.