000 AGXX40 KNHC 270744 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 244 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure centered over the Carolinas extends a ridge to the SW across the Gulf waters. This is resulting in moderate to fresh southeasterly winds over the western half of the Gulf and northeast to east winds over the eastern half of the Gulf with seas mainly between 3 to 5 ft. As the high moves eastward across the Atlantic Ocean, winds will continue to veer to the SE and S across the remainder of the Gulf region. Little change in this weather pattern and marine conditions is anticipated through most of the day Wednesday. A thermal trough will developd over the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to locally strong winds will accompany this trough through Wednesday evening. A cold front will reach the northwestern Gulf by late Wednesday, then move quickly southeastward Wednesday night into Thursday, reaching from south Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Thursday evening. Latest model guidance is forecasting strong to near gale winds behind the front, with the highest chance for gales across the southwestern Gulf along the coast of Veracruz during the day Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The most recent scatterometer pass provided observations of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the east and central Caribbean. Lighther winds are noted over the NW Caribbean. High pressure building north of the area will bring increasing winds and building seas across most of the basin, and the Tropical N Atlantic waters, including also the Atlantic passages tonight. By this evening, strong trades will cover the central Caribbean and the Windward Passage, with mainly fresh trades elsewhere. Then, strong nocturnal flow is expected within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, with winds reaching minimal gale force during the overnight and early morning hours through Friday night. Seas are forecast to build to 13-14 ft near the coast of Colombia with the gale force winds. A gale warning remains in effect for that area. Outside of the gale region, seas are forecast to build to 8-10 ft across the east and central Caribbean, and the Tropical N Atlantic, with seas to 8 ft in the Windward passage. By late Friday, winds are forecast to increase to 20 kt across the Yucatan Channel due to the presence of a strong high pressure over the SE CONUS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A frontal boundary extends from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas. The front will move SE across the forecast waters today while weakening. High pressure in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh NE-E winds across much of the area today. Then, the high will shift eastward extending a ridge across the forecast waters through Wednesday. Under the influence of the ridge, expect fresh easterly winds across the waters south of 22N through Wednesday, with seas building to 7-8 ft east of the Bahamas mainly tonight through Thursday. By Thursday, expect increasing winds across the NW waters ahead of the next cold front forecast to move into the area by early Thursday afternoon. The front will reach from near Bermuda to south-central Florida on Thursday night. Mainly fresh northerly winds are expected behind the front with seas of 6-7 ft. On Friday, winds will further increase to 20-25 kt in the wake of the front with seas building to 8 ft. The front is forecast to extend from 30N65W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba by Friday night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Tue night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.