000 AGXX40 KNHC 261921 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 221 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure is moving eastward as it passes north of the Gulf basin this afternoon. This is resulting in moderate to fresh southeasterly winds over the western gulf and east to northeast winds over the eastern Gulf with seas mainly between 3 to 5 ft. The high will move offshore the eastern united States late tonight which will bring about an expansion of the east to southeast winds to also include the eastern Gulf by Monday. This pattern of east to southeast flow will persist through most of the day Wednesday, with nocturnal increases of the winds off the west coast of the Yucatan reaching 25 kt at times. A cold front will reach the northwestern Gulf by late Wednesday, then move quickly southeastward Wednesday night into Thursday, reaching from south Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Thursday evening. Latest model guidance is forecasting strong to near Gale winds behind the front, with the highest chance for Gales across the southwestern Gulf along the coast of Vera Cruz during the day Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A weak surface trough extending from the coast of Honduras to the Cayman Islands that has been supporting showers and thunderstorms will slide westward tonight and move inland over Belize and Honduras Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure building north of the Caribbean will support increasing trade winds beginning tonight and continuing into the day Monday. By late afternoon Monday strong trades will cover the central Caribbean and the Windward Passage, with mainly fresh trades elsewhere. Tonight, expect strong to near gale winds due to nocturnal enhancements along the coast of Colombia. On Monday night and all subsequent nights during the forecast period, the combination of stronger trade winds and nocturnal enhancements along Colombia's coast will support gale force winds within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. The combination of these gale winds and the overall strong trade wind field over the central Caribbean will support seas of 8 to 13 ft over much of the central Caribbean Monday night through the end of the forecast period. Over the Atlantic waters high pressure building over the central Atlantic will support fresh to strong trades throughout the forecast period with seas over the tropical Atlantic zones building to 8 to 10 ft Monday night through the rest of the upcoming work week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front extends from 31N72W to Freeport, Bahamas and is then stationary to the Florida Straits. The portion north of the Bahamas will continue to move eastward and exit the northeastern zones on Monday, while the southern stationary portion dissipates through tonight. After that, high pressure will build across the region, and dominate the SW N Atlantic through mid week with mainly moderate winds north of 25N and fresh to locally strong easterlies south of 25N. The strongest winds during that time will prevail near the approach to the Windward Passage, and over the southeastern zones. Seas will range from 4 to 6 ft north of 22N, and 6 to 9 ft outside the Bahamas south of 22N Monday through Wednesday. A cold front will approach the northwestern waters Wednesday night with fresh to strong return flow developing north of 28N west of 70W late Wednesday before the front arrives. The front will then cross the northwestern waters on Thursday, reaching from 31N68W to the northwestern Bahamas by Friday morning. Mainly fresh northerly winds are currently forecast behind this front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning Mon night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.