000 AGXX40 KNHC 241720 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1220 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Weak surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. A strong low pressure center, that still is moving through the SW North Atlantic, continues to move more to the east. Southerly return wind flow is on increase across the western Gulf. Latest scatterometer and surface data show SE-S winds in the 15-20 kt in this area. These winds are occurring ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter the NW corner of the area later today. This next front will move across the northern Gulf through Saturday night, then lift northward as a warm front Sunday, ahead of a low pressure system that will be tracking across Texas and Louisiana, and to the north of the area on Monday and Tuesday. Fresh to strong winds are expected briefly behind the cold front on Saturday, with seas building to 6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will dominate the western Gulf on Sunday, spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf on Monday. Seas will remain generally below 6 ft. By Monday evening, expect increasing winds to 20 kt near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. A cold front over the Windward Passage will dissipate later today. Otherwise, A weak pressure pattern will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds over the Caribbean through Saturday. The pressure gradient will increase by Saturday night over the southern Caribbean as high pressure builds over the SW north Atlantic. This will result in moderate to fresh east to northeast trades over the southern Caribbean Saturday night with locally strong winds near the coast of Colombia. The trades across the entire Caribbean will increase by Sunday night as stronger high pressure builds over the western Atlantic, with nocturnal Gales possible each night north of the Colombia coast Sunday night through the middle of next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. A 1004 mb low continues over the northern zones near 30N76W with a gale occurring to the northeast of the low, and strong to near gale southerly winds over the remainder of the northeastern zones, with seas of 8 to 13 ft over most of our northeastern zones today. The low is forecast to track northeast and out of our area of discussion tonight, and will continue to move farther from our area through Saturday. This will allow winds to gradually decrease and seas to slowly diminish through tonight into Saturday. Generally fair conditions are then expected across the zones Saturday, despite lingering swell subsiding over the northeastern zones. By Saturday night, a cold front is forecast to cross the northwestern zones, reaching from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Sunday, and east of the zones by Monday. High pressure will support fresh east to northeast winds behind the front through Monday night. The high will then become settled over the northeast zones by the middle of the week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.