000 AGXX40 KNHC 240724 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 224 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A ridge is building across the eastern Gulf as a strong low pressure system over the SW North Atlantic continues to move farther east. Southerly return flow is on increase across the western Gulf. Latest scatterometer and surface data show SE-S winds in the 15-20 kt west of 94W. These winds are occuring ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf today. This front will move across the northern Gulf through Saturday night, then lift northward as a warm front Sunday, ahead of a low pressure system tracking across Texas and Louisiana and north of the area Monday and Tuesday. Fresh to strong winds are briefly expected behind the cold front on Saturday, with seas building up to 6-7 ft. Then, moderate to fresh southerly winds will dominate the western Gulf on Sunday, spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf on Monday. Seas will remain generally below 6 ft. By Monday evening, expect increasing winds to 20 kt near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to near 17N81W. A pre- frontal trough stretches from Haiti to near 15N78W. The cold front will move east today while weakening. Gentle to moderate westerly winds are noted over the NW Caribbean in association with the large circulation of the strong low pressure system over the SW North Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are currently seen in the Windward Passage ahead of front, but mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected today across this area. Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the NW coast of Colombia on Saturday night, with gale conditions possible on Sunday and Monday nights. Fresh to locally strong NE flow is expected across the north-central Caribbean, and to the lee of Cuba, including also the Windward Passage on Sunday night. Fresh to strong trades are expected across the east and central Caribbean, including also the Gulf of Honduras on Monday night. At that time, moderate E-SE winds are forecast across the NW Caribbean and near the coast of Nicaragua. Seas are forecast to build to 13-14 ft near the coast of Colombia Monday night into early Tuesday morning with the gale force winds. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A 1004mb gale center is located east of Florida near 28.5N78W. The most recent scatterometer data indicate gale force winds within about 120 nm north of the associated warm front that extends from 28N71W to 27N69W. Fresh to strong winds are also noted ahead of the cold front, particularly from 20N-27N between 68W-72W. The low will move slowly NE today with a swath of gale force SE winds NE of the low center, along the warm front affecting the forecast zones AMZ113 and AMZ115, where a gale warning will remain in effect today. The low will drag a trailing cold front across the SE Bahamas today. Marine conditions will improve this upcominng weekend as the low pressure moves N of the area. On Saturday, mainly moderate SW-W winds will dominate much of the forecast region, with seas of 7-8 ft across forecast zone AMZ115 and seas of 5-6 ft elsewhere east of the Bahamas. The next cold front will move into the NW waters by Saturday night and sweep across the north waters through Monday while weakening. Fresh to locally strong NW are briefly expected behind the front Saturday night into early Sunday morning with seas of 6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds will set-up across the NW waters Monday and Tuesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning today. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.