000 AGXX40 KNHC 231708 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1208 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A 1001 mb surface low moved e across Fl overnight. A moderate to fresh nw to n breeze expected across the e gulf through this evening, while moderate to fresh return flow develops over the western waters ahead of a cold front moving off the Tx coast on Fri morning. Model guidance has slowed the movement of the front, and now expect it to pass through the Fl Straits late Sat night, but leave some remnants across the sw gulf waters. These frontal remnants should lift n on Sun as a weak warm front, with fresh to strong se winds n of the front. A weak cold front will move off the Tx coast on Mon morning and stall across the nw waters late Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A stationary front extends e to w across the waters ne of the Leewards, and will be accompanied by locally BKN/OVC low-mid level clouds and scattered showers for the next days. A cold front over the nw Caribbean will stall from e Cuba to extreme e Honduras late Fri, and gradually wash out through Sat. A fresh to locally strong sw-w-nw wind shift is expected along the front through early afternoon, with strong southerly flow continuing e of the front across the s approach to the Windward Passage through this evening. Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the nw coast of Colombia on Sat night with gale conditions possible on Sun and Mon nights. Fresh to locally strong ne flow expected across the n-central Caribbean, and to the lee of Cuba on Sun night. Fresh to strong trades expected across the entire area on Mon night, except moderate se flow across the nw Caribbean. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A surface low moving off the Fl coast at 28N will move ne passing through 31N73W early Sat while trailing a cold front to e Cuba. A warm front will extend ese from the low with strong to near gale force e to se winds and seas of 8 to 14 ft forecast across the waters n and e of the low and fronts to along 68W, with an embedded swath of gale force winds that will shift ne of the area on Fri night. A secondary cold front will move into the far nw waters on Sat night accompanied briefly by strong nw post-frontal flow. Fresh return flow will develop w of 75W on Sun night as a ridge forms from Bermuda to central Fl. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning today. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning today into Fri. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning tonight into Fri. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Gale Warning today. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning tonight. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.