000 AGXX40 KNHC 221737 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1237 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A 1005 mb surface low is analyzed over the ne gulf trailing a cold front s through the Fl Straits to the Yucatan Channel. A strong sw to w wind shift will accompany the front today across the waters s of 25N with a moderate to fresh w to nw breeze forecast elsewhere w of the low and front. The low will move ese across the Fl Peninsula along 27-28N tonight into early Thu dragging the front e of the area. However guidance suggests a secondary boundary will wrap cyclonically around the low and pass through the se gulf waters on Thu in the form of a slight and moderate w to nw wind shift. A sharp n to s orientated ridge forecast along 93W late tonight will shift e to along 90W on Thu setting up moderate to locally fresh se return flow across the nw waters ahead another cold front moving off the Tx coast on Fri morning. This second front will race e across the entire gulf waters by late Sat night with fresh ne to e winds w of the front early Sun, then becoming se across the nw gulf on Sun afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A series of troughs, or weak cold fronts accompanied by locally BKN/OVC low-mid level clouds, are passing se across the discussion area e of 69W resulting in northerly flow. Scattered showers continue across the tropical waters near 18N55W with lightning data detecting tstms only to the e of 55W. At least one of these troughs will stall to the e of the Leewards on Thu, with its remnants drifting back wnw, so may see some more precip across the ne Caribbean islands on Thu before the remnants begin to lift n on Thu night ahead of a stronger cold front. A cold front extending sw from western Cuba to Belize will reach a position from extreme e Cuba to extreme ne Nicaragua on Thu evening. A fresh to locally strong sw-w-nw wind shift is expected along the front through tonight, with strong southerly flow continuing e of the front across the s approach to the Windward Passage through Thu evening. The front will gradually wash out from the Windward Passage to ne Nicaragua through Sat. Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the nw coast of Colombia on Sat night with gale conditions possible on Sun night. Fresh to locally strong ne flow expected across the n-central Caribbean and to the lee of Cuba on Sun night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A cold front extending from w 25N55W to 21N70W to 23N76W will stall from roughly 21N55W to Hispaniola early Thu. The front segment to the w of Hispaniola will lift n later on Thu as a warm front which will then extend e from a surface low which will have moved off the Fl coast at 28N on Thu morning. Strong w to nw winds currently observed to the n of 26N e of 63W will shift n of 31N this evening. Strong se winds are developing across the waters n of the Bahamas, with this strong se flow expected to spread e across all waters w of 78W this evening. A cold front will extend se from the low near 28N80.5W to NW Cuba on Thu, with strong to near gale force e to se winds forecast across the waters e of the low and front to along 68W. The gradient will further tighten on Thu morning with minimal gale force winds embedded within a larger area of strong to near gale force winds to the e of the low and front to along 67W, with seas building to 8 to 14 ft just e of the Bahamas. The low will lift ne to near 29N75W early Fri trailing the cold front se to the Windward Passage with 30 to 40 kt gale winds n of 28N between 67W and 69W. The low should track to near 31N74W on Fri night as a band of strong to near gale force se winds spread ne across Bermuda, with these conditions shifting n of 31N on Sun. Strong ne winds will develop w of the low as early as tonight, and continue till the low passes n of 31N on Fri night. A secondary cold front will move into the far nw waters on Sat night accompanied by strong nw post-frontal flow. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning Thu into Thu night. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning Thu night into Fri. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri into Fri night. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Gale Warning Thu. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.