000 AGXX40 KNHC 210730 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 230 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Low to medium confidence. A sharp mid-upper level trough moving off the Texas coast into Louisiana is triggering a line of showers and thunserstorms in northwest Gulf. At the surface, buoy observations and a partial scatterometer pass indicate a distinct wind shift along a trough extending from New Orleans through 27N90W to the Bay of Campeche. The feature lacks true frontal characteristics other than a sharp transition across the boundary from NW to SSE winds. Models show this trough drifting east across the Gulf into early Wednesday, followed by development of a surface low just east of Tampa that slowly moves across southern Florida through Friday. Fresh to strong winds are expected off the coast of Tampico and north of the Yucatan Peninsula overnight. Fresh to near gale force winds are expected off the coast of Veracruz later today. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will develop over NW waters Tuesday night and over the SE basin Wednesday night through Thursday morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The surface trough slowly moving through the Gulf of Mexico the next few days will have a major impact on the synoptic pattern in the Caribbean. Winds will become very light across most of the region, except within 120 nm west of the trough axis in the NW Caribbean as it drifts across the Yucatan Basin through Thursday. Expect seas to subside to 2-3 ft across the entire Caribbean by Wednesday morning, and remain benign in most of the basin through Friday except in the NW Caribbean. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Low to medium confidence. A surface low centered near 23N64W is trailing a cold front across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh cyclonic winds within 150 nm of the low center. This low will weaken today then dissipate by tonight as an approaching cold front sweeps through the area north of Puerto Rico. Large seas associated with the approaching cold will sweep through the forecast waters mainly east of 65W through Thursday. A surface low expected to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and move across southern Florida will enhance southeast winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas Thursday and Thursday night, with strong winds increasing to 25-30 kt roughly near 28N78W Thursday morning and seas building to 9-11 ft north of the Bahamas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.