000 AGXX40 KNHC 201936 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 236 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Tuesday, then medium thereafter. A sharp mid-upper level trough extends across central Texas southward to a base over central Mexico near 20N. This trough supports an outflow boundary off the coast of Texas to NE Mexico and associated heavy showers and tstms N of 23N W of 92W. Surface observations show strong to near gale force winds behind the boundary and dense fog ahead of it N of 27N to 89W. Weak high pressure across the far eastern Gulf and low pressure to the W is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere W of 85W with seas from 3 to 6 ft being the highest seas on the NW Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this trough as it continues to move E to the Gulf central waters before it is overtaken by a cold front to exit the Texas coast later today. The front will then move into the E Gulf on Wed with a center of low pressure forming over the NE basin. Model guidance indicate the low will then track SE into the Florida Peninsula Thu night and into SW N Atlc waters Friday. Fresh to strong winds are expected off the coast of Tampico and N of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Fresh to near gale force winds are expected off the coast of Veracruz Tuesday. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will develop over NW waters Tuesday night and over the SE basin Wednesday night through Thursday morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras and along the coast of Colombia today through early Tuesday morning with seas reaching 7 ft off the coast of Belize and 8 ft off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere with seas ranging between 3 to 5 ft...highest in the SW Caribbean. A cold front will move across the NW Caribbean waters Wed through Friday supporting fresh to strong winds off the coast of Belize, the Gulf of Honduras, the Yucatan Channel and in the adjacent waters of the lee of Cuba through Thursday and across the Windward Passage Thursday through Friday. Light to moderate winds will dominate elsewhere through Friday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Moderate to high confidence. A cold front extends from a low pressure centered near 29N68W to 23N68W across the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front from 20N to 26N between 61W and 67W being supported by an upper level trough. A tight pressure gradient between the frontal system and high pressure building across the Bahamas will support fresh to strong winds within 240 nm from the low SW semicircle today. The low will move SE today and out of the area tonight. A cold front will move south of 30N tonight, which is forecast to extend from 28N65W to 27N70W Tuesday morning. Fresh to strong N winds will accompany the front. A low with associated cold front will move across Florida into the W basin waters Thursday into Friday supporting fresh to near gale force winds across and NE the Bahamas through Saturday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Ramos. National Hurricane Center.