000 AGXX40 KNHC 200724 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 224 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Tuesday, then low thereafter. Water vapor imagery shows an unusually sharp mid-upper level trough west of the area extending from Colorado across west Texas and Mexico to south of the equator along 108W. The trough is slowly moving eastward, with very active convection east of the trough axis. Weak high pressure across the northeast Gulf and low pressure across Texas and NE Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds west of 92W, with seas building to 6-7 ft in the NW Gulf. Winds will continue to increase later today across the western Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens. An elongated low pressure trough will emerge off the Texas coast today and move eastward into the central Gulf through early Wednesday. Model guidance shows broad low pressure development Wednesday in the east-central Gulf, with the low tracking slowly eastward into South Florida. Although model consensus is improving, confidence in the extended portion of the forecast remains low. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure NE of the Caribbean is maintaining moderate trade winds across the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras and along the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W where fresh to strong nocturnal winds are occurring. Another weaker pulse is expected tonight with seas topping out at 8-10 ft. Seas are generally 3-5 ft...except 5-8 ft in the aforementioned areas of stronger winds. A broad low pressure trough in the Gulf of Mexico will weaken the pressure gradient in the Caribbean Tuesday through Thursday, and relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Moderate to high confidence. A cold front trails southward from low pressure centered near 30N72W to the Bahamas near 25N76W. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong southerly winds and active convection within 150 nm east of the front. Moderate to fresh NW winds are observed behind the front. The low will move east-southeast to near 28N68W later today and weaken, while reinforcing cold air moving south of 30N will strengthen the cold front across northeast waters through Tuesday. High pressure across the SE CONUS will slowly shift east-southeast Tuesday through Thursday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.