000 AGXX40 KNHC 181901 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 201 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Monday, then low to medium. Active convection persists in the northeast Gulf ahead of a trough which is analyzed from the Florida Panhandle to the central Gulf. Outside of any convection, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail under broad ridging, along with 2-4 ft seas. The trough will slowly move east through early Sunday with high pressure moving into the northeast Gulf by late Sunday afternoon. Winds will increase across the western half of the Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens with elongated low pressure troughing from central Texas to eastern Mexico. Model guidance shows the elongated troughing and associated broad low pressure slowly moving across the basin from west to east Monday night through Thursday. Due to a lack of model consensus, confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is low. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure analyzed north of the basin is maintaining moderate easterly to southeast flow across the waters, except in and near the Gulf of Honduras and northwest of the coast of Colombia where fresh to strong flow is pulsing. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft, except 1-3 ft north of 18N east of 85W, and 5-8 ft across the areas of stronger winds. Expect the areas of stronger winds to continue to pulse through late Monday night, approaching near gale force offshore of Colombia at night where seas will build to 8-11 ft. A broad low pressure system in the northwest Gulf of Mexico will help to weaken the pressure pattern across the Caribbean, with relatively tranquil boating conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through tonight, then moderate. A cold front analyzed from 22N61W to the northeast Dominican Republic will stall and dissipate through tonight. High pressure of 1021 mb analyzed near 26N70W will shift east tonight as weak low pressure and an associated weak cold front approach from the west-northwest. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas and north of 27N west of 77W, 7-10 ft in northerly swell across the northeast portion, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. The weak cold front will move into the northern waters tonight while the parent low skirts along 31N. Southerly winds just ahead of the front and north of 27N will increase to fresh to strong helping to build seas to 8 ft. The low and front are forecast to exit east of 65W Monday night with high pressure centered over the Carolinas building southeast across the area in the wake of the front through the middle part of the upcoming week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.