000 AGXX40 KNHC 180710 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 210 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Monday. High pressure east of the area is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and seas ranging between 2-4 ft across the northern half of the basin while 3-5 ft prevail south of 25N. A weak cold front will move east over the Gulf States affecting the northern Gulf waters tonight and Sunday. Strong high pressure will build southward over the eastern Gulf Sunday night and Monday, allowing fresh to strong east-southeast flow to develop over the western Gulf. Model guidance shows a broad low pressure system slowly moving across into the basin Monday night through Thursday. due to a lack of model consensus, confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is low. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A weak pressure pattern continues across the basin. Scatterometer data along with ship and buoy observations show gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin except south of 15N between 70W-78W, where moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail. Seas of 2 ft or less prevail across the NW Caribbean west of 80W and 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere. Expect fresh trades to persist near the NW coast of Colombia, increasing to strong and possibly near gale at night the next few days. Easterly flow will briefly increase to fresh to strong in Gulf of Honduras through Monday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Saturday night. Moderate confidence afterwards. A cold front east of the southern Bahamas is exiting the area, and a surface ridge centered near 27N72W prevails over the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NW winds north of 29N east of 70W associated a tight gradient between the high and low pressure well north of the area that is trailing a front east of the forecast area. Winds and seas will gradually diminish today over northeast waters as the front moves further east and high pressure builds across the central Atlantic into tonight. Model guidance suggests a low will move offshore northeast Florida on Sunday morning, dragging a cold front across northern and central waters through Monday night. Strong high pressure will build southward over northern waters Tuesday. The tight pressure gradient between the high and the exiting cold front should allow strong northerly winds to develop in eastern waters north of 24N on Tuesday along with building seas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.