000 AGXX40 KNHC 171904 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Monday. High pressure centered near 29N88W extends across the basin. Scatterometer data along with buoy observations show gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and seas ranging between 2-4 ft across the northern half of the basin while 3-5 ft prevail south of 25N. The high is expected to move eastward through the next 24 hours entering the western Atlantic. A weak cold front will move east over the Gulf States affecting the northern Gulf waters on Saturday night and Sunday. Strong high pressure will build southward over the eastern Gulf Sunday night and Monday, allowing fresh to strong east-southeast flow to develop over the western Gulf. A low pressure system and associated cold front may move into the western Gulf by Monday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A weak pressure pattern continues across the basin. A weakening stationary front extends from 21N79W to 20N87W. Scatterometer data along with ship and buoy observations show gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin except south of 15N between 69W- 76W, where moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail. Seas of 2 ft or less prevail across the NW Caribbean west of 80W and 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere. Expect for the fresh trades to persist near the NW coast of Colombia, increasing to strong and even near gale at nighttime on Saturday and Sunday. Easterly flow will briefly increase to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Honduras through Monday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Saturday night. A cold front extends from 25N66W across the southern Bahamas to central Cuba. A surface ridge prevails over the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data showed near-gale force winds near 30N55W. Fresh to strong NW winds are depicted in ASCAT north of 26N west of the front. Seas ranging between 11-13 ft are expected north of 26N and east of 72W. The front will quickly move eastward today, with winds across the region diminishing as a high pressure enters the western portion of the region from the Gulf of Mexico along 28N through Sunday. Model guidance suggests a low will move offshore northeast Florida on Sunday morning, dragging a cold front across northern and central waters through Monday night. Strong high pressure will build southward over northern waters Tuesday. The tight pressure gradient between the high and the exiting cold front should allow strong northerly winds to develop in eastern waters north of 24N on Tuesday along with building seas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster ERA. National Hurricane Center.