000
AGXX40 KNHC 170705
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through
Monday.

High pressure centered near New Orleans prevails over the region,
and scatterometer data along with buoy observations show light to
gentle anticyclonic winds and seas generally less than 4 ft. The
high will shift eastward through Friday night into the western
Atlantic. A warm front associated with low pressure over Texas is
expected to lift north across the central Gulf Friday night and 
through Saturday, followed by a weak cold front that will move
east Saturday night and Sunday. Strong high pressure will build
southward over the eastern Gulf Sunday night and Monday, allowing 
fresh to strong east-southeast flow to develop over the western 
Gulf. A low pressure system and associated cold front may move 
into the western Gulf Monday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A weak pressure pattern continues across the basin. Scatterometer
data along with ship and buoy observations show gentle to moderate
trades east of 78W, and light to gentle east-southeast winds west
of 78W. Seas are 1-2 ft in the NW Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere
across the basin. Fresh trades will persist near the NW coast of
Colombia, increasing to fresh to strong tonight. Early Saturday 
and Sunday mornings, expect near gale force winds in this area. 
Easterly flow will briefly increase to fresh to strong in the 
Gulf of Honduras at night Friday through Monday.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through
Saturday night.

A cold front extends from 27N65W across the central Bahamas to 
central Cuba. Weak high pressure prevails over the remainder of 
the basin. Scatterometer data at 0046 UTC showed minimal SW gale
force winds near 30N62W. Fresh to strong west-northwest winds 
are depicted in ASCAT north of 25N west of the front. Large seas
to 12 ft are north of 26N in northeast waters east of 72W. The 
front will quickly move eastward today, with winds across the
region diminishing as high pressure moves east from the Gulf of
Mexico along 28N through Sunday. Model guidance suggests a low 
will move offshore northeast Florida on Sunday morning, dragging
a cold front across northern and central waters through Monday 
night. Strong high pressure will build southward over northern 
waters Tuesday. The tight pressure gradient between the high and
the exiting cold front should allow strong northerly winds to 
develop in eastern waters north of 24N on Tuesday along with 
building seas.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.