000 AGXX40 KNHC 161935 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 235 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure continue to build across the region in the wake of a cold front that moved off the Straits of Florida during the morning. The ridge is providing with gentle to moderate northerly flow...strongest at the Bay of Campeche and east of 89W. Buoy observations along with recent altimeter data swaths indicate seas in the range of 6-8 ft in the Bay of Campeche and in the range of 2-6 ft increasing from northwest to southeast across the remainder basin, except in the Yucatan Channel where seas are in the range of 3-4 ft. The center of high pressure will shift eastward across the northern waters through Friday night when it moves north of the Bahamas. At the same time, low pressure over Texas starts to extend southeast across the far western Gulf. A warm front associated with the low pressure is expected to lift north across the central and eastern Gulf Friday night through Saturday followed by a weak cold front that moves across those same waters Saturday night through Sunday. Strong high pressure that builds southward over the eastern portion of the Gulf late Sunday night into Monday gradually sliding eastward will allow for fresh to strong east to southeast flow to develop over the western Gulf. A low pressure with an associated cold may move into the western Gulf Monday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A weak pressure pattern continues across the basin. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict mainly moderate east trades east of 78W, except for a small pocket of fresh trades from 13N to 15N between 64W and 68W. Gentle to light east to southeast winds are west of 78W. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds are noted covering the central and southern portions of the Tropical North Atlantic, while lighter winds in the gentle to moderate range are over the northern Tropical North Atlantic zones. Observations show 1-2 ft seas over the NW Caribbean waters and 3-6 ft from north to south across the remainder basin subsiding slightly during the weekend. North swell propagating through the northern and central tropical North Atlantic waters will reach the southern portion of those waters this evening and tonight, then be confined to zone AMZ037 by Friday afternoon through Saturday while decaying. A weakening cold front has moved into the northwest Caribbean extending from western Cuba near 22N82W to 21N84W where it stalls across the northern Yucatan Peninsula. The front is forecast to completely stall while it dissipate through Friday morning. Otherwise, fresh trades will persist near the northwest coast of Colombia, increasing to fresh to strong at night beginning Friday night. The exception will be early Saturday and Sunday mornings when near gale force winds are expected. Easterly flow will briefly increase to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night beginning Friday through Monday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front extends from 30N66W to the northern Bahamas to northern western Cuba near 23N80W with scattered showers and tstms within 300 nm east of it north of 26N. Weak high pressure is present over the remainder of the basin. Minimal southwest gale force winds continue over the northern waters east of the front. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict southwest strong to near gale force winds across the northern and elsewhere northeast of the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are south of 25N east of the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh westerly to northwesterly winds are northwest of the Bahamas. The front will quickly move eastward across the northern and central waters today with gale force winds ahead of it diminishing late tonight. Then, the main issue will be related to large seas, possibly peaking to around 17 ft, due to the long period northwest swell that will move through most of the region through Thursday night. By Friday, the swell will be confined to zone AMZ115, but will be on the decaying trend. High pressure will shift eastward across the northern waters in the wake of the front through early Saturday in response to an approaching Gulf of Mexico low pressure and associated cold front. Model guidance suggests that the low will move offshore northeast Florida on Sunday morning dragging the cold front across the northern and central waters Sunday through Monday night. A strong high pressure ridge is forecast by the global models to build southward over the northern waters Tuesday. The tight pressure gradient between it and the exiting cold front should allow for strong north winds to develop over much of the eastern waters north of about 24N on Tuesday along with building seas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Ramos. National Hurricane Center.