000 AGXX40 KNHC 160800 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Friday night, then average confidence thereafter. The 06Z preliminary surface analysis along with satellite and ship/buoy observations show the cold front along a position from Naples Florida southwest to just northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula, and to the eastern Bay of Campeche. High pressure is settling in across the area in the wake of the front. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data reveal that overall the winds throughout the Gulf continue on a decreasing trend. The strong northwest winds and near gale force winds over the western and central gulf that were evident yesterday and yesterday evening have decreased to mainly moderate to fresh northerly winds. The small pocket of northwest to north gale force winds near the coast of Veracruz have lowered to mainly fresh winds as of last night. The buoy observations along with recent altimeter data swaths indicate seas in the range of 6-8 ft between 91W and 97W from 19N to 26N, and within 75 nm either side of a line from 29N84W to 25N91W. Seas are higher, in the range of 8-10 ft south of 23N between 93W and 97W. Seas elsewhere are lower, in the 4-6 ft range, except for lower seas of 2-3 ft in the far northwest and north/central portions. The front will continue to push southeastward exiting the forecast waters this morning. A pocket of 5-8 ft seas will linger over a small pocket over the northeast waters, then subside to 5-6 ft by late this morning. The high pressure over the area will shift eastward to the far northeast waters by Friday while weakening, and to east of Florida and to the western Atlantic on Saturday in response to low pressure well west of the Gulf over the central U.S. and Texas shifts eastward with time. A warm front associated with the low pressure is expected to lift north across the central and eastern Gulf Friday night through Sunday evening followed by a weak cold front that moves across those same waters Sunday and Sunday night. Strong high pressure than builds southward over the eastern portion of the Gulf late Sunday night into Monday night while gradually sliding eastward. This will allow for moderate to strong east to southeast flow to develop over the western Gulf along with seas building to around 8 ft far western waters Sunday night into Monday. Latest and recent model runs are suggesting that broad weak low pressure with an associated frontal system will move over the western Gulf Monday into Tuesday, however, presently confidence with regards to exact timing and strength is rather average at best with these expected features. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A rather weak pressure pattern is analyzed across the basin. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict mainly moderate east trades east of 79W, except for a small pocket of fresh northeast trades within 60 nm of the northwest coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are west of 79W, except for moderate to fresh southeast winds from 16N to 17N between 84W and 86W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are noted in the 0146Z Ascat pass to cover the central and southern portions of the Tropical North Atlantic, while lighter winds in the gentle to moderate range are over the northern Tropical North Atlantic zones. The observations show 3-5 ft seas east of a line from the southeast tip of the Dominican Republic to 15N78W to northwest Colombia, with the exception of slightly higher seas of 5-6 ft within 60 nm of the northwest coast of Colombia. To the west of the same line, seas are lower in the 2-4 ft range except for higher seas of 4-5 ft north of 17N west 83W. These seas, especially north of 20N including the Yucatan Channel, will be most likely build some more through today and this evening as northwest swell from the Gulf of Mexico propagates into the northwest Caribbean. The swell will decay by Friday night. North swell propagating through the northern and central tropical North Atlantic waters will reach the southern portion of those waters this afternoon and tonight, then be confined to zone AMZ037 by Friday afternoon through Saturday while decaying. A weakening cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean this morning, then will gradually dissipate through Friday evening. Otherwise, fresh trades will persist near the northwest coast of Colombia, but begin to pulse to fresh to strong early Saturday and to near gale force Sunday and again to fresh to strong early Monday and early on Tuesday. Easterly flow will briefly increase to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Honduras Friday night, Saturday and Sunday night. These winds then develop again Monday and Tuesday night covering a little more area. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence, except average confidence Sunday through Tuesday. The preliminary 06Z surface analysis has a cold front extending from near 31N74W southwest to southern Florida. The tail end of a dissipating warm front extends northwest into the far eastern waters near 28N66W. Weak high pressure is present over the remainder of the basin. The 0154Z Ascat pass clearly revealed the minimal southwest gale force winds over the northern waters east of the front. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict strong to near southwest gale force winds elsewhere north and northeast of the Bahamas, and moderate to fresh southerly winds south of 27N east of the Bahamas. Light to moderate westerly winds are west of the Bahamas. The front will quickly move eastward across the northern and central waters through Thursday night, with the gale force winds ahead of it lifting northeast of zone AMZ115 by that time. The main issue will be related to large seas due to the long period northwest swell that will move through most of the northern and central waters through Thursday night. By Friday, the swell will be confined to zone AMZ115W, but will be on the decaying trend. High pressure will shift eastward across the northern waters in the wake of the front through early Saturday. Otherwise, a second cold front may move across the northwest waters Saturday night through Monday night followed by strong high pressure. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning early today. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning early today into today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.