000 AGXX40 KNHC 151944 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 244 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to 25N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N96W. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict fresh to strong west to northwesterly flow west of the front with seas to 8 ft in the SW basin where minimal gale force winds are expected during the afternoon through late tonight. Fresh to strong south to southwesterly winds are also ahead of the front north of 27N to 84W with seas in the 3-7 ft range. Light to moderate southerly flow is elsewhere east of the front with seas to 4 ft. The front will reach from south Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula Thursday morning, then will move southeast of the area Thursday night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail west of the front through late tonight. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of this front through Saturday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure is centered north of the area. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict fresh to strong winds within 120 nm off the coast of Colombia, moderate to fresh winds north of Honduras and light to moderate flow over the remainder Caribbean waters as well as over the tropical north Atlantic waters. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 1-3 ft over the northern Caribbean, 4-6 ft north of Honduras, and 2-6 ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters. Northwesterly swell will propagate into the tropical north Atlantic waters tonight through Saturday. A weakening cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Thursday morning, then will dissipate on Friday. Otherwise, fresh trades will persist near the northwest coast of Colombia increasing to fresh to strong early Saturday and to near gale force Sunday. Easterly flow will also increase to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Honduras Saturday through Sunday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A warm front extending from 25N65W to 25N70W to 27N74W will become diffuse tonight west of 65W. High pressure prevails over the remainder forecast area being anchored by a 1020 mb high near 27N63W. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict fresh to strong southerly winds over the western waters ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the forecast waters this evening through Saturday. Gale force winds are expected north of 30N east of the front starting this afternoon and continuing through Thursday night. Moderate to fresh winds prevail north of the front and in the vicinity of the high pressure center with the strongest winds west of the high. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere south of the front. Seas are in the 6-10 ft range over the waters outside the Bahamas, 5-8 ft over the northwest waters, and 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas. High pressure will build in the wake of the front through early Saturday. Otherwise, a second cold front may move across the northwest waters Saturday night through Sunday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning today into tonight. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning tonight. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning tonight into Thu. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Ramos. National Hurricane Center.