000 AGXX40 KNHC 150817 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 317 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence, except average confidence days 4 (Saturday) and 5 (Sunday). The 06Z surface analysis has the cold front along a position from southeast Louisiana to 24N92W and to the southwest Gulf region. Strong high pressure is building southeastward in the wake of the front. The 0354Z Ascat pass revealed fresh to strong northwest winds behind the front. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict generally light to gentle southeast to south winds over the eastern Gulf north of 26N, and gentle to moderate east to southeast winds s of 26N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the western waters, except for seas now having built to 6-8 ft from 23N to 28N between 92W and 96W. Seas elsewhere are rather low, in the 1-3 ft range. The cold front is on track to quickly reach from the western Florida panhandle to the southwest around daybreak this morning, from south Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula this evening before exiting the area on Thursday. The fresh to strong northwest winds behind the front will spread over much of the gulf during today, then diminish most zones this evening and into tonight. Near gale to minimal gale force northerly winds are expected over a small portion of the southwest Gulf zone GMZ023 within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz beginning later this morning, and continuing into the late afternoon before diminishing to strong north winds tonight. Seas are expected to build to the range of 8-10 ft with these winds as well as in in the southern portion of zone GMZ017 and the northern portion of zone GMZ023. These seas then subside to less than 8 ft on Thursday morning. High pressure will then move from west to east across the northern waters while weakening through Friday night. A warm front will lift north-northeast across the north-central and northeast waters Saturday through Sunday as low pressure forms over Texas and moves eastward. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten over the western waters Saturday nigh through Sunday night increasing the east to southeast flow there to the moderate to fresh range along with seas building to around 8 ft. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure is centered north of the area. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict mainly fresh northeast to east trades over the south central Caribbean, with the exception of small pocket of strong northeast winds along the coast of northwest Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are over the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Moderate trades are over the southern half of the tropical north Atlantic waters, with mainly gentle trades elsewhere over the tropical north Atlantic waters. Seas have lowered through all zones, with ranges of 3-5 ft south of about 16N east of 83W except for a pocket of 5-6 ft seas south of 13N between 75W and 77W. Seas elsewhere across the Caribbean are in the 2-4 ft range. Seas in the tropical north Atlantic are in the 5-6 ft range, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft south of 15N east of 57W due a decaying northeast swell. The strong northeast winds along the coast of northwest Colombia will diminish to 15-20 kt this afternoon as high pressure north of the area weakens some. This will allow for the pressure gradient over the forecast waters to slacken, diminishing winds and allowing seas to subside through at least Friday. Northeast to east winds along the coast of Colombia are not expected to pulse to strong again until Friday night. The swell occurring over the central and southern tropical north Atlantic waters will continue to decay through today. Wave model guidance indicates that another set of northwest to north swells propagate into the northern tropical north Atlantic zones tonight, and continue through the rest of the tropical north Atlantic zones through Friday evening. Seas are forecast to build up to 10 ft with this next round of northwest to north swell. A weakening cold front will move into the far northwest Caribbean waters on Thursday. It is expected to have little impacts on winds and seas. he front is forecast to dissipate on Thursday night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence, except average confidence northwest part Saturday through Sunday with respect to next cold front. A dissipating stationary front extends from 25N65W to 25N74W and northwest to 31N80W. Weak high pressure is present elsewhere. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict moderate to fresh winds prevail over the far northern waters north of 30N, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. except for light to gentle in the over the northeast part. Seas are in the 8-13 ft north of 23N east of 72W, 3-5 ft over the northwest waters, 5-8 ft elsewhere outside the Bahamas, and 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas. The stationary front will dissipate today. A strong cold front will approach the far northwest corner of the area early this afternoon, then move over the far northwest waters early this evening. Minimal gale force southwest winds will develop ahead of the front north of 30N between 75W and 80W today. The front will reach a position from near 31N74W to 28N81W by late tonight, with the southwest gale force winds reaching eastward to near 69W along with seas of 10-15 ft. Seas will build over much of the area east and northeast of the Bahamas as another round of northwest swell is ushered into the basin by this front. The highest of the resultant seas is forecast by Wave model guidance to be over the far northeast portion of zone AMZ115 on Thursday with max waveheight reaching to near 16 or 17 ft. The front is forecast to reach a position from near 31N64W to 26N70W, and begin weaken from there to western Cuba on Thursday evening. At that time, the gale force southwest winds are forecast to have lifted northeast of zone AMZ115, however seas to around 13 ft will linger in the northeast portion of that zone before subsiding to 8 ft on Saturday, and less than 8 ft Saturday night as weak high pressure settles in over the basin in the wake of the front. The associated high center will shift to the far eastern portion on Sunday as another cold front moves over the northwest waters. Southerly flow will increase over the northwest waters Saturday night and Sunday in advance of this next cold front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... Gale Waring today into this evening south 20.5N W of 95W. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning today into tonight. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning tonight. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning tonight into Thu. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.