000 AGXX40 KNHC 141936 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 236 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Tuesday then medium confidence Wednesday with regards to the potential for gale force winds over the southwest Gulf. High pressure prevails over the forecast waters. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict gentle to moderate southerly return flow over the western Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the western waters and 1-3 ft over the eastern waters. The area of high pressure will weaken tonight as a cold front clips the northeast waters late tonight and Monday. High pressure briefly builds across the area in the wake of this front before retreating eastward. this will enable a second cold front to move into the northwest waters late Tuesday into Wednesday. The front will shift across the Gulf waters and move southeast of the area by Thursday afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will prevail west of the front through Wednesday. Near gale winds are expected over the southwestern waters where the typical barrier jet sets up. There is a chance that winds behind the front may even reach minimal gale force over the southwest waters which will bear watching. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure is centered north of the area. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict strong to near gale force winds over the south central Caribbean, fresh to strong winds over the windward passage, moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the Caribbean waters, and moderate winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters. Seas are in the 8-13 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 7-8 ft over the windward passage, 5-7 ft over the north central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the remainder of the Caribbean, and 6-7 ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters. Winds will pulse again to minimal gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight. High pressure will weaken north of the area over the next day or so. This will loosen the pressure gradient over the forecast waters, diminishing winds and allowing seas to subside. Winds and seas are expected to diminish below advisory criteria by early Tuesday morning.diminishing northwesterly swell has propagated into the tropical north Atlantic waters. Seas will continue to subside through midweek before another set of northwesterly swells propagate into the area. A weakening cold front will move into the far northwest Caribbean waters on Thursday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Tuesday then medium confidence Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure prevails over the forecast area. A dissipating stationary front prevails over the southeast waters. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict moderate to fresh winds over the southern waters, reaching strong in the approach to the windward passage. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the far northern waters north of 30N, and light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the southern waters outside the Bahamas, 3-5 ft over the northwest waters, 5-7 ft elsewhere outside the Bahamas, and 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas. The stationary front will dissipate today. A progressive pattern will see a couple of cold fronts shifting across the forecast waters. The first cold front will move across mainly the northern half of the forecast area late tonight through late Tuesday. This front will usher in a set of northwesterly swell which will affect mainly the eastern waters the first half of the week, with highest seas over the northeast waters. A second cold front will move into the northwest waters Wednesday night. This front will be accompanied by near gale southwesterly winds east of the front. The front will also usher in a set of northwesterly swell with seas reaching near 16 ft over the northeast waters by Thursday night. There remains the chance that gale force winds ahead of the front may clip the far northern waters. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Wed. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning Wed into Wed night. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning Wed night. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning Wed night into Thu. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster AL. National Hurricane Center.