000 AGXX40 KNHC 140800 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A dissipating frontal boundary extends from Naples Florida to near 27N84W. The 0234Z Ascat pass highlighted a weak anticyclone centered near 27N86W, with associated light to gentle winds noted north of 25N east of 89W. The latest satellite derived winds along with ship, buoy, and CMAN observations are showing fresh southeast winds over the western waters, and gentle to moderate east to southeast winds elsewhere. Observed sea heights are in the ranges are quite low in the eastern portion of the areas with seas there in the range of 1-3 ft, with 0-1 ft in seas north of 25N east of 83W. In the western portion, seas are in the 2-3 ft range between 90W and 94W, higher seas of 4-6 ft between 94W and 96W except for seas of 6-7 ft from 21N to 24N between 93W and 97W. The forecast is on track with the next cold front to enter the western Gulf waters tonight...and quickly reach from the western Florida panhandle to the southwest Gulf Wednesday morning...from near Tampa Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula on Wednesday evening, then move southeast of the Gulf on Thursday. The SREF model guidance is suggesting that minimal gale force northerly winds will develop over a small portion of the far southwest Gulf on Wednesday behind the front. Fresh to strong northerly will be elsewhere across the area. High pressure will build over the area in the wake of the front with the high center shifting eastward from the northwest Gulf to the northeast Gulf by Friday. Model guidance indicates that the high will weaken through Saturday as a weak front moves across the northeast Gulf waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure continues to weaken north of the area. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the Caribbean, and gentle winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 4-5 ft elsewhere in the Caribbean, except for lower seas of 3-4 ft in the northwest and eastern portion. In the tropical north Atlantic zones, seas are 6-8 ft south of 15N due to a decaying north swell there. Seas elsewhere in the tropical north Atlantic zones are 5-6 ft. High pressure will remain weak north of the area through the forecast period. This will result in winds and seas diminishing over the Caribbean waters this week. A set of northwest swell will begin to invade the northern portion of the tropical North Atlantic Wednesday night with bringing seas up to the range of 8-10 ft there. This swell will move through the remainder of the tropical North Atlantic zones through Friday evening while decaying. A weakening cold front will move into the far northwest Caribbean waters on Thursday, where it will dissipate through Friday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. As of 06Z, a cold front extends from near 28N65W southwest to 27N72W, and to a weak 1015 mb low centered offshore Stuart Florida. A trough extends from the low southwest along the Florida Keys. High pressure is analyzed elsewhere over the forecast waters. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict fresh to strong winds over the northern waters, and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft northeast of the Bahamas, except for significantly higher seas in the range of 8-12 ft in zone AMZ115, and 12-15 ft in the far northeast portion of that zone. Seas elsewhere are in the range of 4-6 ft outside the Bahamas, and 1-2 ft west of the Bahamas. The cold front will become stationary west of about 71W this morning, and begin to dissipate this afternoon into this evening. The portion east of 71W will remain as a cold front and move east of the basin this evening. Models are in consensus in suggesting that a strong cold front will sweep across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas Wednesday through early Friday. The front will be preceded by near gale to minimal gale force southwest winds north of about 30N in zones AMZ113 and AMZ115 Wednesday through Thursday. A large set of NW swell will follow in behind the front through the much of the waters northeast of the Bahamas inducing seas to possibly reach up to 17 ft in the far northeast waters of zone AMZ115 on Thursday, and seas of 9-14 ft elsewhere northeast of the Bahamas at that time. The swell will propagate to the east of 65W Friday night through Saturday night allowing for seas in the northeast portion of the basin to lower to around 5-8 ft. High pressure will shift eastward across the northern waters in the wake of the front Friday through Saturday allowing for moderate southerly winds to develop over the northwest waters while the next cold front passes through the southeast United States. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning S of 20N W of 95W Wed. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Gale Warning N of 30N between 76W and 79W Wednesday and Wednesday night, and N of 30N E of 76W Thursday. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.