000 AGXX40 KNHC 101934 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 234 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. Except medium confidence after Sunday. A cold front is exiting the southeastern Gulf while a stationary front dissipates into a surface trough over the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. High pressure over the southeastern United States is supporting fresh to strong east to northeast winds over the southeastern gulf, including Florida Straits through tonight. Seas will reach 8 to 9 ft along the Gulf Stream as the winds oppose the Gulf Stream current now through Saturday morning. The high will shift southeastward over the weekend and become oriented east to west across the western Atlantic and the northern Gulf coast. This will support return flow across the entire Gulf basin Saturday night through Sunday. Thereafter, forecast models are trying to keep up with the dynamic and active pattern across the central and eastern United States. Previous forecast runs had been calling for a ridge to meander over the northeast Gulf into early next week. However, the latest GFS now has a cold front cross the north central and much of the eastern Gulf Monday and Monday night. This pattern is trending more towards the same situation we have seen the past couple of days. Since this scenario is relatively new, confidence is not high for the Monday into Wednesday time frame. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure passing north of the region and the climatological low pressure residing over Colombia will support persistent fresh to strong trades over the south central Caribbean through the forecast period. The gradient will tighten each night tonight through Sunday night sufficiently so that winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Latest wave guidance provides seas in the range of 8-13 ft within the south central and eastern part of the southwest Caribbean during the forecast period, highest near the nightly gale. The winds will not be as strong Monday and Tuesday as the ridge to the north of the area weakens. A cold front is entering the northwest Caribbean this afternoon and will continue to move southeast through tonight. The front will then stall out from eastern Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday before dissipating through Sunday. High pressure over the eastern United States will support fresh to strong northeast winds over the northwest Caribbean now through Saturday night, with the strongest winds over the Lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. Seas will build to near 8 ft with the stronger wind fetches. The high will weaken early next week which will result in winds decreasing to 10 to 15 kt over the Caribbean, except for the south central portion of the basin. Trade wind swell of 7 to 9 ft over the tropical Atlantic zones will diminish below 8 ft by late Saturday. However, a batch of northerly swell generated by a frontal system to the north of the region will bring 7 to 10 ft swell to the northern zones Saturday night, and across the remainder of the zones N of 15N by Sunday. Yet another batch of northerly swell will reach the Atlantic zones by mid week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. A cold front from 26N65W to central Cuba will continue to move across the southern waters through tonight, becoming stationary over our southern zones Saturday through Sunday. The front will gradually dissipate late this weekend into early next week. fresh to strong winds within several hundred nm west of the front will continue through Saturday night. These winds will support a broad area of northerly swell 8 to 14 ft across the zones east of the Bahamas through the weekend. The large swell will become confined to the southeastern zones by Sunday and exit the region by Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build from the eastern United States southeastward over our northern zones for the weekend, providing tranquil weather conditions. By Monday, a new cold front will cross the northern zones with fresh to strong winds entering the area mainly north of 27N, with another area of large swell of 8 to 14 ft propagating into our northeastern zones. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight into Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.