000 AGXX40 KNHC 100800 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. The latest surface analysis has a cold front extending from the Straits of Florida to 24N92W and south to near Veracruz Mexico. HIgh pres over the area in the wake of the front is sliding eastward. As a result, winds over the central and western gulf portions have responded by shifting to the east- southeast at moderate to fresh speeds. Winds over the eastern portion of the gulf are north-northeast at fresh intensity. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range n of 24N, except for a pocket of 6-8 ft seas from 25N to 28N between 89W and 95W and lower seas of 2-3 ft n of about 29N. Seas of 2-3 ft are also s of south 24N. The model guidance suggests that the eastern part of the front will continue to move southeastward across northwest Cuba and the Yucatan Channel this morning, while the western portion of the front becomes stationary and weakens through this evening. The high pres over the area will continue to shift eastward through Sunday night allowing for the next frontal system to approach the northern gulf waters. This front will push southward to over the far northern waters Mon. and stall. The western portion of this front will lift northward as a warm front over the far western waters and eastern Tx through Tuesday night in advance of a a stronger cold front that moves across eastern Tx. Moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast winds over the western waters, and the western part of the central gulf will increase in coverage Tuesday and Tuesday night, with seas there building to around 5-7 ft Tuesday. Seas may possibly build slightly higher near the southern and central Tx coasts at that time. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure passing north of the region and the climatological low pressure residing over Colombia will support persistent fresh to strong trades over the south central Caribbean through the forecast period. The gradient will tighten each night tonight through Sunday night sufficiently so that winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Latest wave guidance in combination with a small percentage of TAFB NWPS provide seas in the range of 8-12 ft within the south central and eastern part of the southwest Caribbean during the forecast period, with higher seas of 9-14 ft in and near the overnight gale area. Both latest Ascat data and buoy observations show generally moderate to fresh easterly winds elsewhere. These winds will change little into early next week. A cold front that moved across the Gulf of Mexico yesterday has reached northwest Cuba. This cold front will move across the northwest portion of the Caribbean this morning before it stalls from the eastern tip of Cuba to near the Yucatan Basin tonight. The front will then begin to dissipate late tonight into Saturday. As high pressure builds to the north of the front through Saturday, northeasterly winds will increase across the northwest portion of the Caribbean, particularly across the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage, where winds will peak at 25 kt Friday night into Saturday with seas to 8 ft. Winds will diminish Sunday night into Monday as the ridge to the north of the basin weakens slightly and becomes elongated west to east across the Atlantic. The Atlantic zones should expect persistent fresh to strong northeast to east trades today with seas of 8-10 ft in an east swell. The ridge over the central Atlantic supporting these winds and seas will weaken as it shifts eastward this afternoon and evening due the northern extension of the northwest Caribbean cold front that will sweep across the central subtropical Atlantic. Although the trades will decrease to about 15-20 kt over the weekend, long period northerly swell of 8 to 9 ft from the frontal system to the north will propagate across the tropical Atlantic zones Saturday night through Sunday while decaying to 6-8 ft early on Monday and to 5-7 ft later on Monday, then to 4-5 ft Tuesday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. A cold front is analyzed from near 31N66W to the central Bahamas and to northwest Cuba at 06Z. Strong high pressure is building eastward behind it. Asact data from 0218Z last night showed strong southwest winds ahead of the front north of 28N,and strong to near gale force northwest winds behind the front north of 29N. Seas associated with these winds are in the 9-13 ft range. with the highest of the seas along the northern border of 31N. The front will continue to move quickly southeastward to a position from near 31N61W to the southeastern Bahamas by mid morning today. The front will then stall out over the southern zones late Friday into Saturday before dissipating late this weekend. The strong to near gale force northwest winds behind the front will diminish to strong north to northwest winds today over zone 115 and the eastern part of zone 113. Seas in the range of 8-15 ft will build behind this afternoon over the northern waters. Then, northwesterly 8 to 12 ft swell generated behind the front will propagate east of the Bahama chain Thursday night through Sunday night. The larger swell will become confined to the southern zones by Sunday, diminishing below 8 ft by Monday afternoon. High pressure north of the front will build across the western Atlantic late this weekend into early next week with tranquil conditions shifting southward over our zones during this time period. Then, a cold front is forecast by global models to clip the northeastern zones on Monday with 25 kt westerlies and seas of 8 to 10 ft. Large swell will propagate across the northeastern zones along with the front and build seas to 8 to 17 ft over the northeast zones Monday through at least Monday night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. Gale Warning tonight into Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... Gale Warning tonight. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.