000 AGXX40 KNHC 091850 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. The eastern portion of a cold front that extends from central Florida to northeastern Mexico will move quickly southeast across the Gulf basin, while the western portion stalls and dissipates over the western Gulf tonight. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds can be expected to continue north of the front through tonight. Wave guidance does not bring seas to above 6-7 ft during this time frame. Then, the high to the north will shift east over the eastern United States Friday, which will confine northeast to east fresh to strong winds over the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. The fetch of winds countering the Gulf Stream will support seas to 8 ft over the Florida Straits and westward to just north of the western tip of Cuba Friday through Friday night...while return flow develops across the western Gulf. On Saturday, the high pressure that was north of the region will become centered over the western Atlantic with a ridge axis extending across northern Florida and the northern Gulf coast. This will result in moderate to fresh return flow developing over the majority of the Gulf basin, except for the northeast portion under the ridge, Saturday through Monday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure passing north of the region and the climatological low pressure residing over Colombia will support persistent fresh to strong trades over the south central Caribbean through the forecast period. The gradient will tighten each night tonight through Sunday night sufficiently so that winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Latest wave guidance shows seas ranging from 8 to 13 ft over the region throughout this time period, with the highest seas corresponding under the nightly gale. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere over the Caribbean through this evening. By early Friday, a cold front is forecast to cross the northwestern Caribbean. The front will then stall out from the eastern tip of Cuba to offshore Belize late Friday before dissipating Saturday. As high pressure builds to the north of the front Friday through Saturday, northeasterly winds will increase across the northwestern Caribbean, particularly across the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage, where winds will peak at 25 kt Friday night into Saturday with seas to 8 ft. Winds will decrease by Monday as the ridge to the north weakens slightly and becomes elongated west to east across the Atlantic. The Atlantic zones should expect persistent fresh to strong northeast to east trades through Friday with seas of 8 to 10 ft. The ridge over the central Atlantic supporting these winds and seas will weaken later on Friday as a cold front sweeps across the central subtropical Atlantic. Although the trades will decrease to about 15 to 20 kt over the weekend, long period northerly swell of 8 to 9 ft from the frontal system to the north will propagate across the tropical Atlantic zones Saturday night through Monday. Tranquil conditions are then expected by Monday night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium to High Confidence. A cold front has begun to sweep southeast over the offshore waters of northern Florida this afternoon. Strong to near gale southwesterly flow continues over waters north of about 28N east of the front with seas of 8 to 12 ft, highest along the northern border of 31N. The front will continue to move quickly southeast to extend from 31N61W to the southeastern Bahamas by mid Friday morning. The front will then stall out over the southern zones late Friday into Saturday before dissipating late this weekend. Strong to near gale west to northwest winds are expected north of 27N behind the front today through Friday morning across the northern zones, with the stronger winds becoming confined to within about 150 nm north of the front over the southern zones by Friday afternoon. Seas of 8 to 15 ft will build behind this afternoon over the northern waters. Then, northwesterly 8 to 12 ft swell generated behind the front will propagate east of the Bahama chain Thursday night through Sunday night. The larger swell will become confined to the southern zones by Sunday, diminishing below 8 ft by Monday afternoon. High pressure north of the front will build across the western Atlantic late this weekend into early next week with tranquil conditions shifting southward over our zones during this time period. Then, a cold front is forecast by global models to clip the northeastern zones on Monday with 25 kt westerlies and seas of 8 to 10 ft. Large swell will propagate across the northeastern zones along with the front and build seas to 8 to 17 ft over the northeast zones Monday through at least Monday night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Fri night into Sat. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.