000 AGXX40 KNHC 090912 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 412 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Atlc ridge axis extending wwd into the ern Gulf continues to be squashed sewd across the basin as next s/w is now sweeping ESE across the central US and dragging a cold front now entering NW gulf waters from SW LA to S TX. Obs suggest 20 kt Nly winds building across the TX coastal waters behind front attm. Ahead of the front WSW flow has increased to 15-20 kt across the FL Big Band region where seas are 3-4 ft and possible to 5 ft near the coast. This front will move across the N Gulf and reach from Big Bend to upper Mexican coast this morning, then accelerate SE and reach S FL to NE Mexico by this evening then stall W portions while E portions continue S across the Straits and into W Cuba by Fri morning. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are expected north of the front through this afternoon before winds veer NE to E and diminish slightly tonight into Fri. Wave guidance does not bring seas above 6-7 ft during this time frame. Forcing high to the north will then shift east over the eastern United States by late Friday, which will confine northeast to east fresh to strong winds over the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. The fetch of winds countering the Gulf Stream will support seas to 8 ft over the Florida Straits and westward to just north of the western tip of Cuba Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. On Saturday, the high pressure that was north of the region will become centered over the western Atlantic with a ridge axis extending across northern Florida and the northern Gulf coast. This will result in moderate to fresh return flow developing over the entire Gulf basin Saturday through Sunday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure passing north of the region and the climatological low pressure residing over Colombia will support persistent fresh to strong trades over the south central Caribbean through the forecast period. The gradient will tighten each night through Sunday night sufficiently so that winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Latest wave guidance shows seas ranging from 8 to 12 ft over the region throughout this time period, with peak seas at 13 or 14 ft around 09-12Z each morning. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere over the Caribbean today before high pres behind a cold front approaching from the NW crosses into the northwestern Caribbean Fri morning. The front sink slightly Fri across Cuba and stall out from eastern Cuba to offshore Belize early Sat before dissipating by Saturday evening. As high pressure builds to the north of the front Friday through Saturday, northeasterly winds will increase across the northwestern Caribbean, particularly across the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage, where winds will peak at solid 25 kt Friday night with seas to 8 ft. Winds will decrease by Monday as the ridge to the north weakens slightly and becomes elongated west to east across the Atlantic. The tropical N Atlantic zones should expect persistent fresh to strong northeast to east trades through Friday with seas of 8 to 10 ft in ENE trade wind swell. The ridge over the central Atlantic supporting these winds and seas will weaken later on Friday as a cold front sweeps across the central subtropical Atlantic. Although the trades will decrease to about 15 to 20 kt over the weekend, long period northerly swell of 7 to 8 ft from the frontal system to the north will propagate across the tropical Atlantic zones Saturday night through Monday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. An elongated area of low pressure across the Carolinas is approaching the mid Atlc coast this morning and is supporting strong to gale force SW winds across the NW waters north of 29N and W of about 75W this morning, just ahead of a convergence boundary that will sweep across N portions today. These gales will be short lived, only about 6 hrs before shifting NE and out of area. The broad Atlc ridge dominating the E and central Atlc past several days will shift Ewd ahead of this boundary and an approaching cold front, to produce gradually veering S to SW to W winds today ahead of this new front. This true frontal boundary will emerge offshore of the Florida/Georgia coasts shortly after 12Z and move quickly SE and reach from about 31N75W to Cape Canaveral by mid afternoon, then continue SE and reach from 30N66w to NW Cuba by Fri morning. The front will then gradually stall out over the southern zones late Friday through the weekend as high pres behind it shifts E across the Atlc and winds slowly veer through the weekend, with front dissipating E to W along about 21N Sun afternoon. into Saturday before dissipating over the weekend. Strong to near gale west to northwest winds are expected north of 27N behind the front Thursday through Friday morning across the northern zones, with gales just N of the area. Seas will build 8 to 15 ft behind the front late Thu throguh Fri, with NW swell mixing with NE wind waves producing seas 8 to 11 ft in narrow zone behind the front E of the Bahama chain Thursday night through Sunday night. large more Nly swell will then move in across the waters late Fri through the weekend to produce seas 8-12 ft behind the front. High pressure north of the front will build across the western Atlantic late this weekend into early next week with tranquil conditions spreading southeastward over our zones during this time period. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. Gale Warning tonight. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night into Sat night. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning early today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.