000 AGXX40 KNHC 081843 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 143 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. A ridge axis that extends across the southern Gulf supporting generally fair weather and moderate to fresh southwest winds across the basin will weaken later today as a cold front begins to cross the northwestern Gulf. This front will move quickly across the Gulf basin, reaching from central Florida to northeast Mexico Thursday morning, then exiting the southeastern Gulf by Friday morning, as the western portion dissipates to a surface trough over the southwestern Gulf. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds can be expected north of the front through Thursday night. Wave guidance does not bring seas to above 6-7 ft during this time frame. Then, the high to the north will shift east over the eastern United States by late Friday, which will confine northeast to east fresh to strong winds over the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. The fetch of winds countering the Gulf Stream will support seas to 8 ft over the Florida Straits and westward to just north of the western tip of Cuba Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. On Saturday, the high pressure that was north of the region will become centered over the western Atlantic with a ridge axis extending across northern Florida and the northern Gulf coast. This will result in moderate to fresh return flow developing over the entire Gulf basin Saturday through Sunday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure passing north of the region and the climatological low pressure residing over Colombia will support persistent fresh to strong trades over the south central Caribbean through the forecast period. The gradient will tighten each night tonight through Sunday night sufficiently so that winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Latest wave guidance shows seas ranging from 8 to 12 ft over the region throughout this time period, with the highest seas corresponding under the nightly gale. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere over the Caribbean through Thursday. By early Friday, a cold front is forecast to cross the northwestern Caribbean. The front will then stall out from eastern Cuba to offshore Belize late Friday before dissipating Saturday. As high pressure builds to the north of the front Friday through Saturday, northeasterly winds will increase across the northwestern Caribbean, particularly across the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage, where winds will peak at 25 kt Friday night with seas to 8 ft. Winds will decrease by Monday as the ridge to the north weakens slightly and becomes elongated west to east across the Atlantic. The Atlantic zones should expect persistent fresh to strong northeast to east trades through Friday with seas of 8 to 10 ft. The ridge over the central Atlantic supporting these winds and seas will weaken later on Friday as a cold front sweeps across the central subtropical Atlantic. Although the trades will decrease to about 15 to 20 kt over the weekend, long period northerly swell of 8 to 9 ft from the frontal system to the north will propagate across the tropical Atlantic zones Saturday night through Monday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. An upper trough offshore the southeastern United States is supporting clusters of thunderstorms and isolated squalls over the northeastern zones this afternoon. The energy supporting these storms will continue over these zones into this evening, before exiting the region to the east. An area of low pressure near the North Carolina Coast supports strong to near gale westerly winds north of 29N between about 72W and 80W this afternoon with seas up to 11 ft along 31N. This area of winds and seas will shift northeast of the region along with the low later tonight. A cold front will approach the northwestern waters tonight from the southeastern United States. Strong southwesterly flow will develop over waters north of about 28N tonight east of the front with seas building to 12 ft, highest along the northern border of 31N. The front will emerge offshore Florida/Georgia early Thursday and reach from about 31N78W to 28N82W by mid Thursday morning. The front will quickly sweep southeast to extend from 31N61W to the southeastern Bahamas by mid Friday morning. The front will then stall out over the southern zones late Friday into Saturday before dissipating over the weekend. Strong to near gale west to northwest winds are expected north of 27N behind the front Thursday through Friday morning across the northern zones, with the stronger winds becoming confined to the northeastern zones and within 120 nm north of the front over the southern zones by Friday morning. Seas of 8 to 15 ft will build behind the front Thursday over the northern waters. Then, northwesterly 8 to 10 ft swell generated behind the front will propagate east of the Bahama chain Thursday night through Sunday night. The larger swell will become confined to the southern zones by Sunday, diminishing below 8 ft by Monday afternoon. High pressure north of the front will build across the western Atlantic late this weekend into early next week with tranquil conditions spreading southeastward over our zones during this time period. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Thu night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.