000 AGXX40 KNHC 080905 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 405 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Broad ridge extending SW into the gulf from W Atlc 24 hours ago has shifted S across E portions of gulf in response to deep layered s/w sweeping E across the NE gulf and nrn FL tonight. Low to mid tropospheric jet inducing severe wx Tue has shifted E of basin however gusts in excess of 30 kt are seen in obs all across NE gulf and N Fl past 6 hrs and outflow from ongoing squall line still producing SE winds above guidance across NE part attm. S/w to shift ENE and into Atlc next several hours and exit the region and allow a more narrow ridge to build back across basin today. Next cold front will sink SE into the NW gulf early tonight and progress SEwd overnight before jumping SE across the Ern seaboard and into deepening low along Atlc coastal waters Thu, with front reaching from extreme S Fl to 25N95W to upper Mexican coast by Thu evening, then rotate cyclonically and reach from NW Carib to central TX by Fri evening. Look for N to NE winds 20-25 kt initially behind front veering quickly NE to E. Front will move rather quickly and models not generating waves higher than 6-8 ft. Return flow to quickly set up behind front Fri through Sat as post frontal ridge shifts rather quickly E across the SE U.S. and into W Atlc. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Strong to near gale force trades are occurring across S central portions of Carib attm with model winds just below gale force at 06Z. Evening ASCAT winds just missed area of peak winds but did show sig area of 25 kt winds to 13N. Seas likely 9-11 or 12 ft there attm. Strong trades extend N to 16N across central portions where seas are 7-10 ft. Atlc ridge extending into GulfMex attm will shift gradually ENE today but remain strong enough to maintain strong trades 20-30 kt across central portions and 20-25 kt S of 13N across E Carib through this evening before new high behind next frontal zone begins to build into the region from the NW tonight. This will tighten pressure gradient sufficiently across central Carib next few days for winds to pulse to gale force during nocturnal max. The old front will move sink S across NW Cuba and Yucatan Channel Fri morning and then gradually become diffuse E to W along about 21N over the weekend. NNW post frontal swell will arrive in the NE Carib passages on Sat and increase to large by Sat night, reaching the tropical N Atlc late Sat through Sun. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Atlc ridge is shifting ENE overnight but maintaining moderate to locally fresh SE trades across the SE waters E of 73W while weak Ely perturbation there continues to produce broken multi layered clouds and scattered moderate cnvtn. Vigorous deep layered s/w is shifting ENE across SE coast and N FL and continues to spawn squall line of mod to strong cvntn across the NW waters. Widespread gusts of 30 kt and greater were reported across NE GulfMex this evening and tonight. This feature will move ENE across the nrn waters today and erode NW flank of ridge with moderate to fresh SW winds to dominate the NW waters. The next cold front will move into the far NW waters Thu afternoon and then rapidly SE Thu night, reaching from 30N62W to central Bahamas and W central Cuban coast Fri morning then begin to stall from Ern Cuba ENE across the SE waters over the weekend. Strong high pres behind front to combine with broad deepening low across W Atlc to produce large NNW to N swell that will invade the regional waters and produce brief period of strong NW to N winds behind front Thu night and Fri and then a narrow zone of NE winds N of front Sat and Sun. Models are in reasonable agreement with this frontal boundary and associated winds across the area waters but resolve the associated deep low differently. This yielding larger NW swell from the EC and have blended more of this into swell forecast. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night into Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.