000 AGXX40 KNHC 071900 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Moderate SE return flow dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Severe weather is inland over SE Louisiana and Mississippi moving E. Max seas appear to be around 5 ft offshore waters of SE TX per recent obs and altimeter data and generally 3-4 ft elsewhere except 1-2 ft far NE. The ridge will remain in place and be nudged slightly swd to along about 24N next 48 hrs as a series of significant s/w and associated frontal boundaries sweep ESE across the basin and into W Atlc. A weak frontal boundary will brush N gulf waters tonight and Wed. A more significant front will then sink SE into the N gulf early Thu and quickly move SE across most of basin, reaching from extreme S Fl to near BRO by Thu evening then rotate cyclonically and reach from NW Carib to NE TX by Fri evening. Look for N to NE winds 20-25 kt initially behind front veering NE to E. Front will move so quickly models not generating wave higher than 6-7 ft and will go 6-8 ft to allow for low bias. Return flow to quickly set up behind front Fri through Sat as post frontal ridge shifts rather quickly E across the SE U.S. and into W Atlc. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Strong to near gale force ne flow, and 8 to 14 ft seas, are over the S central Caribbean from about 10N to 16N between 70W and 80W to include the Gulf of Venezuela. Nocturnal wind max off Colombian coast will yield minimal gales wed night, thu night, and sat night. Moderate to locally fresh ne to e winds are expected elsewhere across the Caribbean through Sat. Fresh trades are forecast across the tropical waters e of the Lesser Antilles through late Tue, with 7 to 9 ft seas primarily in mixing n and ene swell with the Ely swell predominant. A cold front will move across W Cuba and Yucatan Channel Fri morning and then become diffuse E to W along about 21N on Sat. NNW post frontal swell will arrive in the NE Carib passages on Sat and increase to large by Sat night, reaching the tropical N Atlc late Sat through Sun. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. 1027 mb high centered E of area near 29N57W. Ridge axis extends W to N Florida. Moderate to locally fresh E trades across S waters S of 22N between 55W-70W with seas to 8 ft. The tail end of a cold front will enter the Atlantic waters off Florida tonight with convection then will lift N Wed. A second more significant front will move off the far N Florida coast Thu afternoon and then move SE overnight reaching from 30N60W to central Bahamas and central Cuba Fri morning then begin to stall from NW Haiti across the SE waters over the weekend. Strong high pres behind front will combine with broad deepening low across W Atlc to produce large NNW to N swell that will invade the regional waters and produce brief period of strong NW to N winds behind front Thu night and Fri and then a narrow zone of NE winds N of front Sat and Sun. Models continue to come in much better agreement with this frontal boundary and associated winds and seas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night into Sat night. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Formosa. National Hurricane Center.