000 AGXX40 KNHC 061720 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1220 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium to high confidence. A ridge extends sw from a surface high over the ne gulf to Central Mexico with moderate to fresh e to se winds across the s and w waters around the periphery of the ridge. Expect a late afternoon thermal trough forecast to develop over the Yucatan Peninsula and move w or wnw across the sw waters during the overnight hours and dissipate during the early daylight hours each morning with the trough accompanied by a ne to e to se 15 to 20 kt wind shift. The ridge will shift s and extend e to w along 25N on Wed allowing the next cold front to move into the nw gulf on Wed evening, with moderate to fresh sw flow to the n of 26N e of the front. Still expect the front to race se through the entire gulf by Thu evening. The post frontal fresh to locally strong flow will quickly clock to the ne, and continue to clock with southerly return flow across the nw gulf on Fri morning. The fresh return flow conditions will spread e across the entire gulf on Fri night and Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. Strong to near gale force ne flow, and 8 to 14 ft seas, are expected across the Caribbean this week from about 10N to 16N between 71W and 81W to include the Gulf of Venezuela. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten this evening, with minimal gale conditions forecast to develop within 90 nm of the nw coast of Colombia tonight, with maximum seas of 13 ft briefly near 11.5N75W. Fresh to locally strong ne flow is expected in the Windward Passage briefly tonight and along the southern coast of Haiti on Tue morning. Strong ne flow expected to the lee of Cuba on Fri evening, with a swatch of strong ne winds developing through the Windward Passage and extending as far s as 16N78W by late Fri night, with similar conditions developing along the s coast of Hispaniola on Sat. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh ne to e winds are expected elsewhere across the Caribbean through Sat. Fresh trades are forecast across the tropical waters e of the Lesser Antilles through late Tue, with 6 to 9 ft seas primarily in mixing n and ene swell with the easterly swell predominant. The gradient will tighten across the tropics on Tue night, with fresh to strong trades e of the Lesser Antilles through Wed. The gradient will relax late in the week with winds diminishing to a moderate ne breeze and seas subsiding to 5 to 8 ft on Sat. However, large n swell will arrive in the ne passages on Sat night, with these n swells propagating s through the tropical waters late in the upcoming weekend. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A cold front extending from 31N72W to the Port of Palm Beach Fl will reach from 31N62W to 27N70W to se Fl tonight, then drift s as a ridge builds sw from Bermuda to se Fl on Tue. Strong sw flow will develop n of 30N w of 75W on Wed night ahead of a second cold front moving off the ne Fl coast early Thu. This second front will move rapidly se to a position from Bermuda to the Bahama Channel early Fri and from 26N55W to the Mona Passage early Sat where it will stall. Model guidance has reversed over the past 24 hours and now differs with the strength of this front. Using a blend of guidance produces a solution of a strong sw to w to nw wind shift to the n of 28N along the front without any frontal wave development to the s of 31N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.