000 AGXX40 KNHC 060904 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 404 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Frontal remnants of boundary of past few days now diffuse with moderate return flow across W and NW portions and associated moisture mostly inland attm. Near and offshore oil platforms reporting fog with moderate vsbys but nothing below 3 nm attm. Seas running near 4 ft NW part and 3-5 ft elsewhere S half in moderate ENE to ESE flow. 1023 mb high is anchored over Fl Big Bend waters with slight to calm seas there. The high will shift slowly ENE next couple of days ahead of deep layered low pres that will move across Plains and into Great Lakes region late Tue. Shifting ridge will allow return flow to encompass entire basin by tonight and then winds to gradually veer further to SW across N portions Wed in advance of next front. A weak front will move to TX coastal plains late Tue and stall then secondary low and front will sweep across the Arklatex Wed with front moving into NW coastal waters during the evening and move SE and reach FL panhandle to SE TX by Thu morning and then accelerating across remainder of basin from NW Cuba to Tuxpan Mx by Fri morning. N to NE winds 20-25 kt expected behind front and will quickly build seas to 6-8 ft by Fri morning. Global models continue to gradually come into better agreement on timing and placement of front with EC still slightly faster and have taken a consensus. Return flow will quickly set up W portions late Fri and Fri night as high behind front shifts E into W Atlc. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Transitory Gulfmex and Atlc ridges passing 30-34N next 48 hours to maintain strong to near gale force trades and 8 to 12 ft seas, are expected across the Caribbean through Wed from about 10N to 16N between 70W and 80W before the pressure gradient weakens slightly late Wed to Thu as Atlc ridge shifts into Ern Atlc. Winds expected to pulse to gale force off of Colombian coasts early this morning and again tonight, with maximum seas briefly to 13 ft. Broad ridge dominating the tropical Atlc is maintain fresh trades extending into tropical N Atlc offshore zones and persistent Ely trade wind swell keeping seas 7-9 ft attm. This ridge extends weakly N of the Greater Antilles and will yield fresh to locally strong NE flow in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba tonight. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh ne to e winds are expected elsewhere across the Caribbean through Fri except SE flow NW portions as high pres opens up into Gulfmex ahead of next frontal system later in week. High pres will shift N of tropical N Atlc zones Tue through Wed to tighten pres gradient to the S and freshen ENE trades with seas there building to 9-11 ft. Next cold front expected to move SE across ern Gulfmex Thu and across Cuba and NW Carib Fri and Sat with strong NE winds behind it, and front moving across Windward Psg by Sat morning, likely allowing for 25-30 kt winds through Psg and in lee of Cuba. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Weak and narrow ridge has shifted NE of area allowing a weak dry front to move SE across NW waters overnight and to central FL with secondary front behind it and just about to enter NW corner attm. This first weak frontal boundary will reach from Bermuda to near the NW Bahamas this afternoon, then continue E and stall across NE waters tonight and Tue. Associated high to the N will shift E as this occurs and merge with broad ridge dominating Ern Atlc allowing fresh trades to spread from tropical N Atlc zones into SE waters N of the Leewards and PR Tue and Wed and moderate return flow elsewhere across the waters. Fresh to strong S to SW flow will develop W of 65W Wed ahead of next cold front to move off the NE Fl coast Thu. Models trending into better agreement on timing and placement of this front, with GFS gradually moving towards EC solutions of recent days. Associated sfc low models had been developing now depicted much farther NE and out of local waters. This front will move rapidly SE and reach from near Bermuda to central Bahamas by Fri morning and NE to SW across the SE waters to NW Hispaniola by Sat morning. Models have trended away from front sweeping across NE Carib in past 24 hrs and now show it stalling N of PR through the weekend. Large swell event expected with this system but still depends on where cyclogensis along front will occur. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today into tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.