000 AGXX40 KNHC 051904 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. Weakening remnants of a front extend ne to sw across the n approach to the Yucatan Channel, and remnants of a warm front extend across the far northern gulf with a surface ridge dissecting the gulf from the Fl Panhandle to Central Mexico. Moderate e to se return flow is currently observed across most of the area, but with the pressure gradient forecast to tighten some late this afternoon, expect fresh ne to e winds to develop across the far se waters this evening, and across the e Bay of Campeche every evening in association with the late afternoon thermal trough forecast through Fri. The next cold front will move into the nw gulf on Wed evening, with moderate to fresh sw flow to the n of 26N e of the front. Guidance has changed somewhat over the past 24 hours, and now expect the front to move much faster passing se through the entire gulf by Thu evening. The post frontal fresh to locally strong flow will quickly clock to the ne, and continue to clock with southerly return flow across the nw gulf on Fri morning. The fresh return flow conditions will spread e across the entire gulf on Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. Strong to near gale force ne flow, and 8 to 12 ft seas, are expected across the Caribbean this week from about 10N to 16N between 71W and 81W to include the Gulf of Venezuela. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten again this evening and again on Mon evening, with minimal gale condtions forecast to develop within 90 nm of the nw coast of Colombia, with maximum seas of 13 ft briefly near 11.5N75W. Fresh to locally strong ne flow is expected in the Windward Passage briefly on Mon night. Strong ne flow expected across the n approach to the Yucatan Channel, and to the lee of Cuba on Fri night, with a swatch of strong ne winds developing through the Windward Passage and extending as far s as 16N77W by early Sat. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh ne to e winds are expected elsewhere across the Caribbean through Fri. Fresh are trades forecast across the tropical waters e of the Lesser Antilles through late Tue, with 6 to 9 ft seas across the tropical waters primarily in mixing n and ene swell. Guidance is indicating fresh to strong trades on Wed and Wed night. The combined seas across the tropical waters e of the Lesser Antilles will subside from the w on Fri night and Sat. By then large n swell will arrive in the ne passages. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. The remnants of two decaying frontal boundaries are observed across the central Bahamas and most of waters e of the Bahamas. A weak 1020 mb surface low is analyzed near 29N79W along a weak developing warm front that will move ne with time. As the low continues ne it will drag the frontal remnants to it's s eastward as a cold front accompanied by a moderate wind shift. This cold front will reach from Bermuda to the Central Bahamas on Mon, then stall from 31N62W to 27N70W to se Fl on Mon night. The w portion of the front will transition to a weak northward moving warm front on Tue to the n of a ridge building sw from Bermuda to se Fl. Strong sw flow will develop n of 30N w of 75W ahead of a third cold front moving off the ne Fl coast early Thu. This third front will move rapidly se to a position from Bermuda to Port Canaveral Fl late Thu, from Bermuda to Central Cuba early Fri, and from 31N58W to the Mona Passage on Fri night. Guidance is becoming more in sync with a very convective frontal wave low accompanied by near gale force winds developing near 28N along the front on Fri night, but well e of the Bahamas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.