000 AGXX40 KNHC 050902 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 402 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Frontal boundary has become diffuse across ern Gulf overnight and is likely from just N of Tampa Bay WSW to central gulf near 25N90W then remnants extends NW as lifting warm front into NE TX coast. Dew points already rising into the low 60s along TX coast. Moderate to locally fresh ENE to E wind flow S of this boundary yielding generally 4-5 ft seas from Straits of FL to SW Gulf while moderate SE return flow NW portions kicking up seas to 4-5 ft already. Sfc ridge across SE U.S. extends SW then SSW into basin and not expected to change much through early Mon before beginning to shift Ewd into W Atlc Tue and Wed. Moderate return flow NW portions with gradually spread E into central portions by early Mon with freshening Sly flow NW part, then return flow encompassing entire basin by Tue morning. Winds will continue to veer to SSW Tue and increasing briefly to 20 kt NW and N central coastal waters then veering further to SW by Wed morning ahead of next front. After much deliberation I am continuing to follow EC solution with this front late Wed through end of week with faster fropa across the basin late Wed through Thu night and stronger Nly winds behind front. N to NE wind 20-25 kt expected behind front with front reaching from S FL to Tuxpan by Thu evening then dipping S and through Yucatan Channel by Fri evening with shifting high behind front already yielding moderate return flow NW Gulf. An inverted thermal trough will develop during the late afternoons over the Yucatan Peninsula, then move offshore during the evenings, and continue wnw during the overnight hours, eventually dissipating by late morning over the s southern gulf waters just to n of the Bay of Campeche. Expect a fresh ne-e-se wind shift along this trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Mid latitude high pres generally N of Colombia will continue to combine with semi-permanent Colombian low to produce strong trades across central Carib S of 16N that will pulse to gale force across the Colombian waters each of the next few nights. Seas of 8-11 ft will peak each early morning at 9-13 ft through Wed morning before ridge shifts well into ern Atlc. Fresh to locally strong ne flow is expected during this same period in the Windward Passage and in the lee of central Cuba near 21N79W and also to the lee of Hispaniola near 17N72W. A strong cold front will move into the Gulf of Mex Wed night and move into the NW Carib late Thu night with strong high pressure behind it across the SE U.S. to produce tight pres gradient and 20-25 kt NNE winds behind front as it moves into basin. Front to move SE and reach NW Hispaniola to Gulf of Honduras Fri evening and into Puerto Rico to Nicaragua by Sat evening. Again, as mentioned above, feel more confident with EC solution for this extended period. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. The remnants of a decaying frontal boundary are still observed from 27N60W to vcnty of 26N74W, with remnants further W having lifted N overnight as weak warm front offshore of FL. Inverted trough resides over the gulfstream and FL coastal waters. Current obs show ESE to SE winds 20 kt across Bahama Banks and into far SE FL and local MIA area, while a 120 nm band of 20+ kt NE to E winds is dammed up along N side of frontal boundary and will gradually weaken today as high to the N of front shifts NE. Seas have built N of front past 12-18 hrs in N to NNE swell and wind sea and are likely 7-10 ft. Buoy 41116 offshore of Cape Canaveral has been hovering 6-7 ft past few hours. To the S of the front moderate ENE trades prevail with spots to strong near orographic influence of the islands. ESE trade wind swell generated by long fetch of trades across the tropical Atlc keeping seas up 6-7 ft across the SE waters and 7-9 ft across tropical N Atlc waters. Progressive upper pattern continues across most of ern U.S. and NW Atlc with another frontal boundary expected to sweep eastward across the local nrn waters this afternoon through Tue and models in general agreement on this. However, due to fast upper level flow, timing differences show up by Wed with next frontal system to move into the Atlc. Due to better run to run consistency and historical model biases, I still prefer the EC solution for this front later in the week, and associated cyclogenisis along it. GFS has trended closer to EC solution in the past 24 hours and would expect them to come into better agreement in next few days. Strong winds and large swell to be generated behind this frontal system as it sweeps across entire area and stalls across the Leewards late in the upcoming weekend. Details to become clearer later in the week, and thus confidence moderate attm. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. Gale Warning tonight. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.