000 AGXX40 KNHC 041938 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 238 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A cold front extends sw from the Fl Big Bend to 27N93W where it stalls to se Tx with e winds observed to the n of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are observed to the s of the front with 3 to 6 ft seas throughout the gulf. The cold front portion will drift se today and gradually dissipate across the se gulf through tonight as the quasi-stationary segment of the front transitions to a weak warm front that will move slowly n. Moderate to locally fresh e to se flow forecast across the western gulf waters to the s of the warm front. A broad warm frontal boundary, accompanied by showers, is forecast to extend e to w across the northern gulf coastal plains on Sun and Mon with an e to w ridge to the s of the front shifting s to a position from the Fl Straits to ne Mexico on Wed. By then, the next cold front will have dipped into the northern waters along position from the Fl Panhandle to the Tx Coastal Bend. This weak front will reach from Tampa Bay to se Tx late Wed night, then drift s on Thu. An inverted heat trough will develop during the late afternoons over the Yucatan Peninsula, then move offshore during the evenings, and continue wnw during the overnight hours, eventually dissipating by late morning over the s southern gulf waters just to n of the Bay of Campeche. Expect a fresh ne-e-se wind shift along this trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. Strong to near gale force ne flow, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are expected across the Caribbean from about 10N to 16N between 71W and 81W to include the Gulf of Venezuela. The pressure gradient is expected to further tighten this evening, and on Sun and Mon evenings, with minimal gale condtions forecast to develop within 90 nm of the nw coast of Colombia, with maximum seas of 13 ft briefly near 11.5N75W. Fresh to locally strong ne flow expected in the Windward Passage tonight, and also to the lee of central Cuba near 21N79W and also to the lee of Hispaniola near 17N72W. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh ne to e winds are expected elsewhere across the Caribbean through Thu. Fresh are trades forecast across the tropical waters e of the Lesser Antilles through early Wed with 6 to 8 ft seas across the tropical waters primarily in mixing n and ene swell. Guidance is indicating fresh to strong trades on Wed night into Thu. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium to high confidence. The broad remnants of a decaying frontal boundary are still observed from 31N60W to across the central Bahamas to nw Cuba, and are accompanied by locally overcast low and mid level clouds and a few showers, except tstms are currently flaring along the boundary near 30N61.5W. A weakening ridge extends from 28N80W to 26N72W with a cold front analyzed from 31N68W to 28N81W. Strong w winds are noted to the n of 30N within 180 nm e of the front, with a rapid wind shift to the n and ne behind the front with seas to about 9 ft. This cold front will move rapidly e to a position from 27N55W to 26N71W on Sun with the w portion of the front extending back n as a warm front to near near 31N77W, and just ahead of another cold front that will have moved offshore from 31N79w to Ft. Pierce Fl. Although only a fresh sw-w-nw wind shift is expected along this second cold front, the front will also progress rapidly e to a position from 31N68W to 23N80W on Mon. This second front will then abruptly slow and nearly stall on Mon evening. The w portion of this second front will move n as a warm front on Tue to the n of a ridge extending sw from Bermuda to Port Everglades Fl. Strong sw flow will develop n of 30N w of 75W ahead of a third cold front moving off the ne Fl coast late Wed. This third front will move se to a position from Bermuda to Port Canaveral Fl late Thu, with some guidance hinting at a very convective frontal wave low developing along the front just n of the Bahamas on Thu night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.