000 AGXX40 KNHC 040835 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 335 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. A cold front has begun to stall across NW Gulf from near 26N91.5W to BRO vcnty while ern part of front continues to shift SE...now from just S of Cedar Key Fl to 26N91.5W. Ern portion of front will continue SE through tonight and gradually become diffuse while W portion will begin to drift N later today as warm from. Fresh NE to ENE flow is currently N of the boundary and yielding 5-7 ft seas across TX coastal waters except 4 ft far NE waters. This 1-2 ft above WW3 and more in line with EC wave. Anticyclonic flow otherwise generally prevails across the basin as high pres over MO valley extends S and SE to front and is bridging over it across ern Gulf. Seas 3-5 ft elsewhere except 2-3 ft just S of front where winds are lightest at 5-10 kt. The ridge N of front will shift E today with a new high settling in across the far NE Gulf and adjacent Gulf states and allow for return flow across the western gulf waters to set up tonight while warm front moves inland across NW coasts. Ridge will strengthen slightly Mon and begin to shift NE with return flow spreading E across most of basin except for fresh E to SE flow across Srn Gulf through Tue night. Deep layered low and associated cold front will move across Plains states and into Great Lakes region Tue with front sinking slowly SSE into nrn Gulf late Wed as wind flow across N half veers further the SW and diminishes to 10-15 kt. Otherwise, an inverted trough will develop during the late afternoons over the Yucatan Peninsula, then move wnw offshore during the evenings and continue nw during the overnight hours eventually dissipating over the sw gulf waters during the late mornings. Expect a fresh ne-e-se wind shift along this trough. Have followed more closely to EC solution with this front with less penetration into Gulf that GFS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Strong to near gale force ne flow expected within about 90-120 nm of the nw coast of Colombia tonight with strong ne to e winds elsewhere across the Caribbean from about 10N to 16N between 65W and 81W, each of the next few nights. Weak high pres transiting across the region between 70W and 90W to produce sufficient pres gradient to support these pulsing nocturnal gales. Are of fresh to strong trades across central sections to expand into E Carib and adjacent tropical N Atlc waters Mon night through Wed as ridge builds across wrn Atlc. Moderate to locally fresh ne to e winds expected elsewhere NW Carib through Wed, with max winds through and downwind of passages and Lee of Cuba. Persistent strong ridge across Ern Atlc continues to yield broad strong trade wind zone across the E and Central tropical Atlc with long fetch that will continue to produce significant trade wind swell across the Atlc waters and through the E Carib passages. Seas of 6 to 8 ft will continue through Sun night before increasing a few ft Mon-Wed as ridge strengthens across the E and Central Atlc and strong trades expand W to E Carib waters. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A decaying frontal trough extends from near 31N65W to the N central Bahamas with a weak and narrow ridge sandwiched between it and next front currently sinking SE into NW waters. As mentioned above, strong E Atlc ridge extends WSW to near 25N67W with associated trade wind swell moving into SE waters and keeping seas 6-7 ft. Seas 3-4 ft within narrow ridge and will build with and behind front as it sinks SE to an E to W position along about 27N this evening and then begins to wash out along 26N by Sun evening extending to the NW Bahamas. NE winds 20-25 kt N of front will shift with front through early tonight and generate modest NNE to NE wind swell with front that will propagate into all waters W of 70W tonight through Sun and then stronger more Nly swell into SE waters Sun night into Mon Another cold front will move off the NE Fl coast on Sun and merge with the remnants of the first front. This second cold front will be more NNE to SSW aligned and be accompanied by a s-sw- nw 15 to 20 kt wind shift, and reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas late Mon, then stall. The w portion of this second front will move n as a warm front on Tue ahead of another cold front moving off the ne Fl coast late Wed and preceded by strong S then SW flow across far NW waters. Models in good agreement through Sun then differ somewhat on placement of second front Mon-Wed and prefer the EC solution during that time frame. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.